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Option prices and implied volatility dynamics under Bayesian learning

  • Allan Timmerman

    (University of California, San Diego)

  • Massimo Guidolin

This paper shows that many of the empirical biases of the Black and Scholes option pricing model can be explained by Bayesian learning effects. In the context of an equilibrium model where dividend news evolve on a binominal lattice with unknown but recursively updated probabilities we derive closed-form pricing formulas for European options. Learning is found to generate asymmetric skews in the implied volatility surface and systematic patterns in the term structure of option prices. Data on S&P 500 index option prices is used to back out the parameters of the underlying learning process and to predict the evolution in the cross-section of option prices. The proposed model leads to lower out-of-sample forecast errors and smaller hedging errors than a variety of alternative option pricing models, including Black-Scholes.

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Paper provided by Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance in its series CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 with number P3.

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Date of creation: 04 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ams:cdws01:p3
Contact details of provider: Postal: Dept. of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Roetersstraat 11, NL - 1018 WB Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 20 525 52 58
Fax: + 31 20 525 52 83
Web page: http://www.fee.uva.nl/cendef/
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