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The Objective Function Of Simulation Estimators Near The Boundary Of The Unstable Region Of The Parameter Space

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  • George Tauchen

Abstract

The paper examines the role of stability constraints in estimation by dynamic simulation. In particular, it analyzes the behavior of the objective function on either side of the boundary of the stability region of the parameter space. The main finding is that stability constraints may be ignored because the simulation-based objective function contains a built-in penalty to enforce stability. A key caveat, however, is that the dynamic stability of the auxiliary model that defines the moment conditions must be checked and enforced. An attempt to fit via simulation to moments defined by a dynamically unstable auxiliary model can be expected to lead to an ill-behaved objective function. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • George Tauchen, 1998. "The Objective Function Of Simulation Estimators Near The Boundary Of The Unstable Region Of The Parameter Space," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 389-398, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:3:p:389-398
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    1. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 63-84, Suppl. De.
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    3. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Estimation Of Continuous-Time Models For Stock Returns And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 135-168.
    4. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
    6. Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, pages 328-352.
    7. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models with diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 159-192.
    8. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1995. "Can Speculative Trading Explain the Volume-Volatility Relation?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-396, October.
    9. Laroque, Guy & Salanie, Bernard, 1989. "Estimation of Multi-market Fix-Price Models: An Application of Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 831-860, July.
    10. Abadir, Karim M., 1993. "On the Asymptotic Power of Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 189-221, April.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, pages 817-858.
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    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Estimation of stochastic volatility models with diagnostics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 159-192.
    2. Yacine Ait-Sahalia, 1998. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discretely Sampled Diffusions: A Closed-Form Approach," NBER Technical Working Papers 0222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ronald Gallant, A. & Tauchen, George, 1999. "The relative efficiency of method of moments estimators1," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 149-172, September.
    4. Nikolay Gospodinov & Serena Ng, 2015. "Minimum Distance Estimation of Possibly Noninvertible Moving Average Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 403-417.
    5. Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Motta, Alberto, 2012. "Why aren't developed countries saving?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1261-1275.
    6. Nikolay Gospodinov & Serena Ng, 2015. "Minimum Distance Estimation of Possibly Noninvertible Moving Average Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 403-417.

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