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A simple estimation method and finite-sample inference for a stochastic volatility model

  • Pascale VALERY (HEC-Montreal)
  • Jean-Marie Dufour (University of Montreal)

The aim of the paper is to fulfill the gap for testing hypotheses on parameters of the log-normal stochastic volatility model, more precisely, to propose finite sample exact tests in the sense that the tests have correct levels in small samples. To do this, we examine method-of-moments-based tests and we provide explicit expressions for all the moments and the estimators which simplifies highly the test procedures. We then state the asymptotic distribution of the estimator as well as that of the proposed test statistics for testing the null hypothesis of no persistence in the volatility. We then compare the finite sample properties of the standard asymptotic techniques to that of Monte Carlo tests which are valid in finite samples and allow for test statistics whose null distribution may depend on nuisance parameters. In particular Maximized Monte Carlo tests introduced by Dufour (1995) have the exact level in finite samples when the p-value function is maximized over the entire set of nuisance parameters

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings with number 153.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:153
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  1. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  2. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
  3. Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
  5. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Jean-Marie Dufour & Ian Genest & Lynda Khalaf, 2001. "Simulation-Based Finite-Sample Tests for Heteroskedasticity and ARCH Effects," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-25, CIRANO.
  6. Ronald J. Mahieu & Peter C. Schotman, 1998. "An empirical application of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 333-360.
  7. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  8. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic volatility," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W17, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  9. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287.
  10. Andersen, Torben G. & Chung, Hyung-Jin & Sorensen, Bent E., 1999. "Efficient method of moments estimation of a stochastic volatility model: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 61-87, July.
  11. Chiara Monfardini, 1998. "Estimating stochastic volatility models through indirect inference," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C113-C128.
  12. Torben G. Andersen & Bent E. Sorensen, 1995. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Discussion Papers 95-19, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  13. Danielsson, Jon, 1994. "Stochastic volatility in asset prices estimation with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 375-400.
  14. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers 3., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  16. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
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  18. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  19. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De.
  20. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "Hypothesis Testing with Efficient Method of Moments Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 777-87, October.
  21. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hsieh, David & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models with Diagnostics," Working Papers 95-36, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  22. Danielsson, J & Richard, J-F, 1993. "Accelerated Gaussian Importance Sampler with Application to Dynamic Latent Variable Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S153-73, Suppl. De.
  23. Marine Carrasco & Xiaohong Chen, 1999. "b - Mixing and Moment Properties of Various GARCH, Stochastic Volatility and ACD Models," Working Papers 99-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  24. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1985. "Asymptotic Results for Generalized Wald Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 761R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 1986.
  25. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February.
  26. Jean-Marie Dufour & Alain Trognon, 2000. "Invariant Tests Based on M-Estimators, Estimating Functions and the Generalized Method of Moments," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1420, Econometric Society.
  27. Melino, Angelo & Turnbull, Stuart M., 1990. "Pricing foreign currency options with stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 239-265.
  28. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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