IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eecrev/v56y2012i6p1261-1275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why aren't developed countries saving?

Author

Listed:
  • Dobrescu, Loretti I.
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.
  • Motta, Alberto

Abstract

National saving rates differ enormously across developed countries. But these differences obscure a common trend, namely a dramatic decline over time. France and Italy, for example, saved over 23% and 19% of national income in 1970, but only 9% and 4% respectively in 2008. Japan saved almost 33% in 1970, but only 7% in 2008. And the U.S. saved around 11% in 1970, but only 1% in 2008. What explains these international and intertemporal differences? Is it demographics, government spending, productivity growth or preferences?

Suggested Citation

  • Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Motta, Alberto, 2012. "Why aren't developed countries saving?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1261-1275.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:6:p:1261-1275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.04.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292112000517
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J Kotlikoff, 2006. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the US, EU, Japan and China," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2001. "Heterogeneity in capital and skills in a neoclassical stochastic growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1367-1397, September.
    5. McFadden, Daniel, 1989. "A Method of Simulated Moments for Estimation of Discrete Response Models without Numerical Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 995-1026, September.
    6. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Razin, Assaf & Rosenthal, Robert W, 1990. "A Strategic Altruism Model in Which Ricardian Equivalence Does Not Hold," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1261-1268, December.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    8. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-1057, September.
    10. George Tauchen, 1998. "The Objective Function Of Simulation Estimators Near The Boundary Of The Unstable Region Of The Parameter Space," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 389-398, August.
    11. Jerry Green & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2006. "On the General Relativity of Fiscal Language," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-036, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Jonsson, Gunnar & Klein, Paul, 1996. "Stochastic fiscal policy and the Swedish business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 245-268, October.
    13. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
    14. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    15. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1997. "Parental Altruism and Inter Vivos Transfers: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1121-1166, December.
    16. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Budget Deficits and National Saving: Are Politicians Exogenous?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 23-35, Spring.
    17. Boskin, Michael J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1985. "Public debt and United States saving: A new test of the neutrality hypothesis," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 55-86, January.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2009. "Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(3), pages 371-416, June.
    19. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1989. "What Determines Savings?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262611872, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Why aren't developed countries saving?
      by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-08-02 06:09:00
    2. [経済]先進国の貯蓄率の低下は刹那主義の蔓延のせい?
      by himaginary in himaginaryの日記 on 2012-08-03 12:00:00
    3. The Best 10 Economics Papers of 2012
      by UDADISI in UDADISI on 2012-12-14 04:44:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gergely Varga & János Vincze, 2019. "Saver Types: An Evolutionary-Adaptive Approach," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 41(2), pages 263-287, June.
    2. Carbone, Enrica & Duffy, John, 2014. "Lifecycle consumption plans, social learning and external habits: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 413-427.
    3. János Vincze & Gergely Varga, 2015. "Ants and crickets: arbitrary saving rates in an agent-based model with infinitely lived-agents," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1504, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    4. Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    5. Bucciol, Alessandro & Veronesi, Marcella, 2014. "Teaching children to save: What is the best strategy for lifetime savings?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-17.
    6. Yigit Aydede, 2010. "Generational selfishness and social security: a time-inconsistency problem in parametric reforms of PAYG," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-190.
    7. Yigit Aydede, 2010. "Generational selfishness and social security: a time‐inconsistency problem in parametric reforms of PAYG," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-190.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.
    2. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    3. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2004. "Testing For Structural Change In The Presence Of Auxiliary Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(6), pages 1168-1202, December.
    4. David Laibson & Andrea Repetto & Jeremy Tobacman, 2005. "Estimating Discount Functions with Consumption Choices over the Lifecycle," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000643, UCLA Department of Economics.
    5. Ramdan Dridi & Eric Renault, 2000. "Semi-Parametric Indirect Inference," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 392, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    6. Ramdan Dridi, 2000. "Simulated Asymptotic Least Squares Theory," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 396, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    7. Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev & Jing Tian & Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91, pages 1-24, June.
    8. Thomas Schelkle, 2018. "Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1101-1137, September.
    9. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
    10. Tauchen, George E., 1995. "New Minimum Chi-Square Methods in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 95-42, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    11. Dridi, Ramdan, 2000. "Simulated asymptotic least squares theory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6861, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 2002. "Simulated Score Methods and Indirect Inference for Continuous-time Models," Working Papers 02-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    13. Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    14. Isaiah Andrews & Anna Mikusheva, 2016. "Conditional Inference With a Functional Nuisance Parameter," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1571-1612, July.
    15. Matteo Richiardi, 2003. "The Promises and Perils of Agent-Based Computational Economics," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 29, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
    16. Freyberger, Joachim, 2015. "Asymptotic theory for differentiated products demand models with many markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 162-181.
    17. Lapo Filistrucchi & Tobias J. Klein, 2013. "Price Competition in Two-Sided Markets with Heterogeneous Consumers and Network Effects," Working Papers 13-20, NET Institute.
    18. Yannis M. Ioannides & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 2007. "Unemployment and liquidity constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 479-510.
    19. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    20. Haaijer, Marinus E., 1996. "Predictions in conjoint choice experiments : the x-factor probit model," Research Report 96B22, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    National saving; Discount factor; Simulated method of moments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:56:y:2012:i:6:p:1261-1275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.