IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/eurase/v8y2018i2d10.1007_s40822-018-0092-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?

Author

Listed:
  • Duy-Tung Bui

    () (University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
    University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté)

Abstract

Emerging Asian economies have been acknowledged with a relatively high saving rate for several decades compared to other parts of the world. Higher saving presents an opportunity for this region since it is considered a source of sustainable economic growth. However, average national saving rate in emerging Asia is on the verge of decline. If this is true, then governments in the region could face great challenges in pursuing their sustainable growth path. This paper investigates whether governments can use their traditional tool of fiscal policy to influence national saving, and counteract the declining trend. Using a panel data set of 16 emerging Asian markets from 1990 to 2016, the empirical findings point out several problems in the region. Fiscal authorities do not seem to be concerned about stabilizing the national saving rate. However, the national saving rate behaves in a Keynesian manner to fiscal policy. There is a lack of evidence that the region has effectively used the savings as a force of economic growth. Policy implications are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Duy-Tung Bui, 2018. "Fiscal policy and national saving in emerging Asia: challenge or opportunity?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 305-322, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:8:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-018-0092-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s40822-018-0092-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40822-018-0092-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Ray Barrell & Martin Weale, 2010. "Fiscal policy, fairness between generations, and national saving," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 87-116, Spring.
    3. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2015. "What is the Relationship between National Saving and Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7204, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Joanna Mackiewicz-Lyziak, 2015. "Fiscal Sustainability In Cee Countries – The Case Of The Czech Republic, Hungary And Poland," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(2), pages 53-71, June.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    6. William T. Gavin & Athena T. Theodorou, 2005. "A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 203-219.
    7. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    8. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2007. "Fiscal policy and private consumption in industrial and developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 912-939, December.
    10. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Dobrescu, Loretti I. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Motta, Alberto, 2012. "Why aren't developed countries saving?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1261-1275.
    12. Gyan Pradhan & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2001. "The impact of budget deficits on national saving in the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(13), pages 1745-1750.
    13. Marc Hayford, 2005. "Fiscal policy and national saving," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 981-992.
    14. Domenech, Rafael & Taguas, David & Varela, Juan, 2000. "The effects of budget deficit on national saving in the OECD," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 377-383, December.
    15. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    16. Francisco de Castro & José Luis Fernández, 2013. "Does Ricardian equivalence hold? The relationship between public and private saving in Spain," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 251-274, November.
    17. Eduardo Cavallo & Mathieu Pedemonte, 2016. "The Relationship between National Saving and Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 29-53, April.
    18. David Cass, 1965. "Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(3), pages 233-240.
    19. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    20. Ferrarini , Benno & Ramayandi, Arief, 2015. "Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia: An Update," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 468, Asian Development Bank.
    21. Eswar S. Prasad, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in Asia," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 27-66, April.
    22. Aygun Garayeva & Gulzar Tahirova, 2017. "Government Spending Effectiveness and the Quality of Fiscal Institutions," Izvestiya, Varna University of Economics, issue 2, pages 128-143.
    23. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
    24. Rilind Kabashi, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 39-69.
    25. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
    26. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    27. K. Peren Arin & Abdullah Mamun & Nanda Purushothman, 2009. "The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 33-46, January.
    28. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    29. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    30. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    31. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    32. Eric Wang & Eskander Alvi, 2011. "Relative Efficiency of Government Spending and Its Determinants: Evidence from East Asian Countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(1), pages 3-28, June.
    33. Philip Arestis & Marco Flávio Cunha Resende, 2015. "Fiscal policy and the substitution between national and foreign savings," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 436-458, July.
    34. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2012. "The panel conditionally homogenous vectorautoregressive model," MPRA Paper 37755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    35. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kazuki Hiraga, 2019. "Unit versus ad valorem tax comparisons in a simple New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(4), pages 459-466, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oukhallou, Youssef, 2016. "Analyzing economic growth: what role for public investment?," MPRA Paper 69772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Griet Malengier & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2005. "Examining Ricardian Equivalence by estimating and bootstrapping a nonlinear dynamic panel model," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 61, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Rodolfo Cermeño & Bernardo D. Roth & F. Alejandro Villagómez, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and National Saving in Mexico, 1980-2006," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 23(2), pages 281-312.
    4. BUI, Duy-Tung & LLORCA, Matthieu & BUI, Thi Mai Hoai, 2018. "Dynamics between stock market movements and fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from emerging Asian economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 65-74.
    5. G. Malengier & L. Pozzi, 2004. "Examining Ricardian Equivalence by estimating and bootstrapping a nonlinear dynamic panel model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/274, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Rilind Kabashi, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the European Union, with particular reference to transition countries," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 39-69.
    7. Riveros Gavilanes, John Michael, 2020. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: The South American Case," MPRA Paper 98508, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Reitschuler, Gerhard, 2008. "Assessing Ricardian equivalence for the New Member States: Does debt-neutrality matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 119-128, June.
    9. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    10. Hüseyin ŞEN & Ayşe KAYA, 2017. "Mali Konsolidasyon Büyüme ve İstihdam için Bir Çıpa mı, Mali Tuzak mı? Teorik ve Ampirik Literatür Temelli Bir Analiz," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(34).
    11. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    12. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Staff Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada.
    13. Alogoskoufis, G.S. & van der Ploeg, F., 1991. "Money and growth revisited," Discussion Paper 1991-9, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Gehringer, Agnieszka & Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "Longevity And Technological Change," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1471-1503, June.
    15. Zouaoui, Haykel & Zoghlami, Feten, 2020. "On the income diversification and bank market power nexus in the MENA countries: Evidence from a GMM panel-VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Jerome Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    17. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2008:i:16:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Brendan M. Cunningham, 2003. "The Distributional Heterogeneity of Growth Effects: Some Evidence," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(4), pages 417-447, July.
    20. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    21. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; National saving; PVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:eurase:v:8:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s40822-018-0092-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.