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Fiscal policy and financial market movements

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  • Athanasios Tagkalakis

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

This paper estimates a fiscal policy reaction function in order to investigate the links between financial and real estate market movements and fiscal policy outcomes. An increase in asset prices affects in a positive and significant manner primary balances, with the response reflecting both an increase in government revenues and a fall in government spending. The most important impact on fiscal balances is due to changes in residential property prices. Changes in equity and commercial property prices are also important determinants of fiscal balances. Our findings suggest that the steepening of the slope of the yield curve contributes to expenditure based fiscal discipline.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2010. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Working Papers 116, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:116
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 874-890.
    2. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "Fiscal policy and asset price volatility," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 123-156, February.
    3. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "U.S. Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Working papers 2017-10, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Tagkalakis, Athanasios O., 2014. "Financial stability indicators and public debt developments," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 158-179.
    5. Yang, Weonho & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal adjustment: A tale of two approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 31-60.
    6. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2013. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 197-213.
    7. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Kanyane Matlou, 2014. "A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 46-63, April.
    10. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Using time-varying transition probabilities in Markov switching processes to adjust US fiscal policy for asset prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 25-36.
    11. Agnello, Luca & Dufrénot, Gilles & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2015. "Nonlinear effects of asset prices on fiscal policy: Evidence from the UK, Italy and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 358-362.
    12. Karlis Vilerts & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "The Impact of Sovereign Bond Yields on Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 2016/05, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Discretionary fiscal policy and economic activity in Greece," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 687-712, November.
    14. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
    15. repec:eee:ememar:v:34:y:2018:i:c:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Alexander Zimper, 2014. "The minimal confidence levels of Basel capital regulation," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(2), pages 129-143, April.
    17. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.
    18. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal adjustments and asset price changes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 206-223, June.
    19. Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2017. "Financial Cycles and fiscal multipliers," FMM Working Paper 04-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset prices; slope of the yield curve; fiscal policy; reaction functions;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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