Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-cyclical?
This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 200 Avenue de la République, Bât. G - 92001 Nanterre Cedex|
Web page: http://economix.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sven Jari Stehn & Daniel Leigh, 2009. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy During Downturns; Evidence From the G7," IMF Working Papers 09/50, International Monetary Fund.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003.
"Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe,"
NBER Working Papers
9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005.
"Why is Fiscal Policy often Procyclical?,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1556, CESifo Group Munich.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Working Papers 297, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," NBER Working Papers 11600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000465, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Alberto Alesina & Filipe Campante & Guido Tabellini, . "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Working Paper 248206, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2090, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 285, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012.
"Fiscal Policy in Real Time,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
- Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995.
"Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1997.
"Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing and inference,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
365, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008.
"Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
- Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007.
"Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?,"
IDB Publications (Working Papers)
6843, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Marco Buti & Paul Noord, 2004. "Fiscal Discretion and Elections in the Early Years of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 737-756, November.
- Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Julien Matheron, 2005. "Interactions between business cycles, financial cycles and monetary policy: stylised facts," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 273-98 Bank for International Settlements.
- Dreher, Axel & Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M. & Somogyi, Frank, 2009.
"The impact of political leaders' profession and education on reforms,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 169-193, March.
- Axel Dreher & Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Rupprecht & Frank Somogyi, 2006. "The impact of political leaders’ profession and education on reforms," KOF Working papers 06-147, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Strawczynski, Michel & Zeira, Joseph, 2009. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Permanent and Transitory Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Zsolt Darvas, 2009.
"The impact of the crisis on budget policy in Central and Eastern Europe,"
- Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The Impact of the Crisis on Budget Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42.
- Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "The Impact of the Crisis on Budget Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 0904, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
- Zsolt Darvas, 2009. "The Impact of the Crisis on Budget Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0924, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986.
"Government Purchases and Real Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
2009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008.
"Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data,"
DNB Working Papers
169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2008. "Did Fiscal Policy Makers Know What They Were Doing? Reassessing Fiscal Policy with Real Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kiviet, Jan F., 1995.
"On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July.
- Tom Doan, . "LSDVC: RATS procedure to estimate a dynamic FE model with correction for bias," Statistical Software Components RTS00111, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2012-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valérie Mignon)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.