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Duration of Business Cycles

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  • Everts, Martin

Abstract

In this paper the Bry and Boschan (1971) procedure is modified such that it can be applied to quarterly data in order to recalculate the maximum duration of business cycles. In this way it can be shown that the maximum duration of business cycles constitutes 42 quarters in the United States of America and 49 quarters in the United Kingdom. The large difference to the maximum duration of Burns and Mitchell (1946) makes clear that caution is advisable with the application of the filters by Baxter and King (1999) and Christiano and Fitzgerald (2003). If one chooses the maximum duration too low (high), the amplitude of the medium-term business cycles is underestimated (overestimated) and the variability of the growth rate of the long-term trend is overestimated (underestimated).

Suggested Citation

  • Everts, Martin, 2006. "Duration of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1219, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Égert, 2014. "Fiscal policy reaction to the cycle in the OECD: pro- or counter-cyclical?," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(3), pages 35-52.
    2. Balázs Égert & Douglas Sutherland, 2014. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 98-117, February.
    3. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Sectoral and Industrial Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 1176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sana Souaid Jad, 2017. "Monitoring business cycles in Lebanon: Is economic growth cyclical? Is economic growth cyclical?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, 2015. "Voting and the economic cycle," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 119-133, January.
    7. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2011. "Turkiye Icin Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi Duzgunlestirme Parametresi Tahmini," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1103, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    8. Sana Souaid Jad, 2011. "The use of surveys to measure sentiment and expected behaviour of key sectors in the economy: evidence from the business survey conducted by the Central Bank of Lebanon," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 248-277, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    10. John Maloney & Andrew Pickering, "undated". "Voting and the macroeconomy: separating trend from cycle," Discussion Papers 11/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
    11. R. Becker & Y. Wang, 2013. "Measuring the Chinese business cycle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3988-4003, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration; Business Cycles; Dating Turning Points; Non-Parametric Procedure; Minimum Duration; Maximum Duration; Band-Pass Filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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