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In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence

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  • Helmut Herwartz
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Abstract

We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, logit regressions are carried out. With model estimates at hand, both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are made. Overall, the degree of ex ante predictability is limited if an analyst targets the detection of particular turning points of market valuation. The set of 13 potential predictors is classified in measures of macroeconomic or monetary performance, stock market characteristics, and descriptors of capital valuation. The latter turn out to have strongest in-sample and out-of-sample explanatory content for the emergence of price bubbles. In particular, the price to book ratio is fruitful to improve the ex-ante signalling of stock price bubbles.
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  • Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:33:y:2014:i:1:p:15-31
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.2269
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    2. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
    3. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus, 2019. "Zehn Jahre nach dem großen Knall: wie ist es um die Stabilität der internationalen Immobilienmärkte bestellt?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 67-87.
    4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Sebastian Kohl & Florian Müller, 2023. "Government-Made House Price Bubbles? Austerity, Homeownership, Rental, and Credit Liberalization Policies and the “Irrational Exuberance” on Housing Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2061, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "Uncertainty of Macroeconomic Forecasters and the Prediction of Stock Market Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1405, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.

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    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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