Early warning indicator model of financial developments using an ordered logit
The recent financial crisis has demonstrated in an impressive way that boom/bust cycles can have devastating effects on the real economy. This paper aims at contributing to the literature on early warning indicator exercises for asset price development. Using a sample of 17 industrialised OECD countries and the euro area over the period 1969 Q1 - 2011 Q2, an asset price composite indicator incorporating developments in both stock and house price markets is constructed. The latter is then further developed in order to identify periods that can be characterised as asset price booms and busts. The subsequent empirical analysis is based on an ordered logit-type approach incorporating several monetary, financial and real variables. Following some statistical tests, credit aggregates, the interest rate spread together with the house price growth gap and stock price developments appear to be useful indicators for the prediction of asset price developments.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007.
"A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six central and eastern european countries,"
Documents de Travail de l'OFCE
2007-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Andreou, Irène & Dufrénot, Gilles, 2009. "A Forewarning Indicator System for Financial Crises: the Case of Six Central and Eastern European Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 24, pages 87-115.
- Irene Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Working Papers 0709, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
- Irene Andreou & Gilles Dufrenot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A Forewarning Indicator System For Financial Crises : The Case Of Six Central And Eastern European Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp901, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Print halshs-00372728, HAL.
- Irène Andreou & Gilles Dufrénot & Alain Sand-Zantman & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2007. "A forewarning indicator system for financial crises: the case of six Central and Eastern European countries," Post-Print halshs-00142433, HAL.
- Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
- Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004.
"Asset price booms and monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
0364, European Central Bank.
- Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
- Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010.
"Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
- Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2009. "Asset price misalignments and the role of money and credit," Working Paper Series 1068, European Central Bank.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002.
"Towards a new early warning system of financial crises,"
Working Paper Series
0145, European Central Bank.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003. "Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 81, Royal Economic Society.
- Jan Babecký & Tomáš Havránek & Jakub Matìjù & Marek Rusnák & Kateøina Šmídková & Boøek Vašíèek, 2011.
"Early Warning Indicators of Crisis Incidence: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries,"
Working Papers IES
2011/36, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Nov 2011.
- Jan Babecky & Tomas Havranek & Jakub Mateju & Marek Rusnak & Katerina Smidkova & Borek Vasicek, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators of Economic Crises: Evidence from a Panel of 40 Developed Countries," Working Papers 2011/08, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521199674 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:062012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.