IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Eyes Wide Shut? The U.S. House Market Bubble through the Lense of Statistical Process Control

  • Michael Berlemann
  • Julia Freese
  • Sven Knoth

While most economists agree that the recent worldwide financial crises evolved as a consequence of the US house price bubble, the related literature yet failed to deliver a consensus on the question when exactly the bubble started developing. The estimates in the literature range in between 1997 and 2002, while applications of market-based-procedures deliver even later dates. In this paper we employ the methods of statistical process control (SPC) to date the likely beginning of the bubble. The results support the view that the bubble on the US house market already emerged as early as 1996. We also show that SPC in general might be a useful tool in constructing early warning systems for asset price bubbles.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3962.

in new window

Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3962
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, 02.
  3. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2009. "Understanding the subprime mortgage crisis," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
  4. Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "Makroökonomische Bedeutung von Vermögenspreisblase: Eine Event-Studie für die G4-Länder," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(19), pages 13-33, October.
  5. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Geldpolitik und Vermögensmärkte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 56-65.
  6. David Colander & Hans Föllmer & Armin Haas & Michael Goldberg & Katarina Juselius & Alan Kirman & Thomas Lux & Birgitte Sloth, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics," Discussion Papers 09-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  7. Huntley Schaller & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Fads or Bubbles?," Working Papers 97-2, Bank of Canada.
  8. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the�macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
  9. Hartmann, Daniel & Kempa, Bernd & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2006. "Economic and Financial Crises and the Predictability of U.S. Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Christian Pierdzioch, 2010. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the German stock market, 1876-1913," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 907-908.
  12. Knoth, Sven, 2002. "Statistical process control," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,41, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  13. Jarociński, Marek & Smets, Frank, 2008. "House Prices and the stance of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 0891, European Central Bank.
  14. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
  15. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2009. "Changes in the international comovement of stock returns and asymmetric macroeconomic shocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 289-305, April.
  16. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Kleiber, Christian & Hornik, Kurt, 2002. "Monitoring structural change in dynamic econometric models," Technical Reports 2002,07, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  17. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  19. P. Zemcik & V. Mikhed, 2009. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," ERES eres2009_275, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  21. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
  22. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  23. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  24. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Blondell, David, et al, 2002. " Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 293-315, May.
  26. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 1998. "Periodically collapsing stock price bubbles: a robust test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 221-228, November.
  27. Vyacheslav Mikhed & Petr Zemcik, 2007. "Do House Prices Reflect Fundamentals? Aggregate and Panel Data Evidence," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp337, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  28. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
  29. Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen & Sola, Martin, 1994. "Rational bubbles during Poland's hyperinflation: Implications and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1257-1276, June.
  30. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  31. Meen, Geoffrey, 2002. "The Time-Series Behavior of House Prices: A Transatlantic Divide?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-23, March.
  32. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.
  33. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.