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House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues
  • Rita Fradique Lourenço

Abstract

The real estate market plays a crucial role in a country's economy. Since residential property is the most important component of households' wealth, real estate markets price trends can affect households' consumption and investment decisions via wealth effects. As real estate is often used as collateral for loans, changes in real estate prices affect households' debt and their ability to repay loans, and consequently also impact on the banking sector. As housing covers a basic human need, analyzing fluctuations in residential property prices is also important from a social perspective. Furthermore, since the construction industry is a main employer, investment in construction has a major influence on economic activity. Thus, developments in the real estate market have far-reaching implications on the economy as a whole as well as on financial stability. In this paper we use different methodologies with the objective of providing evidence regarding potential bubble/exuberant behaviour of economic agents in several European countries and the US, over the last four decades.

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  • Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201517
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    2. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço & Robert Hill, 2020. "House price forecasting and uncertainty: Examining Portugal and Spain," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Barbosa, Luciana & Bonfim, Diana & Costa, Sónia & Everett, Mary, 2018. "Cross-border spillovers of monetary policy: What changes during a financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 154-174.
    4. Kennedy, Gerard & O'Brien, Eoin & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Assessing the sustainability of Irish residential property prices: 1980Q1-2016Q2," Economic Letters 11/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Alessandro Sforza, 2020. "Shocks and the Organization of the Firm: Who Pays the Bill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8084, CESifo.
    6. Karmakar, Sudipto & Lima, Diogo, 2023. "Global capital flows and the role of macroprudential policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Ettore Panetti & Edoardo M. Acabbi, 2019. "The Financial Channels of Labor Rigidities: Evidence from Portugal," Working Papers w201915, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Roth, Markus, 2020. "Partial pooling with cross-country priors: An application to house price shocks," Discussion Papers 06/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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