IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: lessons for the future

  • John V. Duca
  • John Muellbauer
  • Anthony Murphy

An unsustainable weakening of credit standards induced a US mortgage and housing bubble whose consumption impact was amplified by innovations altering the collateral role of housing. In countries with more stable credit standards, any overshooting of construction and house prices owed more to traditional housing supply and demand factors. Housing collateral effects on consumption varied, depending on the liquidity of housing wealth. Lessons include recognizing the importance of financial innovation, regulation, housing policies, and global financial imbalances for fueling credit, construction, house price and consumption cycles that vary across countries.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/33613/
File Function: Open access version.
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 33613.

as
in new window

Length: 58 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:33613
Contact details of provider: Postal: LSE Library Portugal Street London, WC2A 2HD, U.K.
Phone: +44 (020) 7405 7686
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Job Swank & Jan Kakes & Alexander F. Tieman, 2002. "The housing ladder, taxation, and borrowing constraints," MEB Series (discontinued) 2002-9, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  2. Chris Foote & Jeff Fuhrer & Eileen Mauskopf & Paul Willen, 2009. "A proposal to help distressed homeowners: a government payment-sharing plan," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  3. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M., 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks Through Financial Markets," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt1j05j7t5, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  4. Paiella, Monica, 2007. "Does wealth affect consumption? Evidence for Italy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 189-205, March.
  5. Muellbauer, John, 2008. "Housing, Credit and Consumer Expenditure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. John Y. Campbell & Joao F. Cocco, 2004. "How Do House Prices Affect Consumption? Evidence From Micro F. Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2045, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  7. John V. Duca & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2011. "House Prices and Credit Constraints: Making Sense of the U.S. Experience," SERC Discussion Papers 0077, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
  8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273.
  9. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
  10. John V. Duca, 2006. "Making sense of the U.S. housing slowdown," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(nov).
  11. Clayton, Jim, 1997. "Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 341-63, May.
  12. Alan Greenspan & James Kennedy, 2007. "Sources and uses of equity extracted from homes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Cunningham, Christopher R. & Engelhardt, Gary V., 2008. "Housing capital-gains taxation and homeowner mobility: Evidence from the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 803-815, May.
  14. Daniel Cooper, 2009. "Impending U.S. spending bust?: the role of housing wealth as borrowing collateral," Public Policy Discussion Paper 09-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  15. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-27, November.
  16. Cameron, Gavin & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2006. "Was There A British House Price Bubble? Evidence From A Regional Panel," ERES eres2006_150, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  17. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 1999. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," Wisconsin-Madison CULER working papers 99-16, University of Wisconsin Center for Urban Land Economic Research.
  18. White, William R., 2008. "Past financial crises, the current financial turmoil, and the need for a new macrofinancial stability framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 307-312, December.
  19. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  20. Jonathan Skinner, 1993. "Is Housing Wealth a Sideshow?," NBER Working Papers 4552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Buiter, Willem H., 2010. "Housing wealth isn't wealth," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4, pages 1-29.
  22. Case, Karl E. & Quigley, John M. & Shiller, Robert J., 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus The Housing Market," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt44k6g6vx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  23. Saiz, Albert, 2008. "On Local Housing Supply Elasticity," ERES eres2008_241, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  24. Jan Hatzius, 2008. "Beyond Leveraged Losses: The Balance Sheet Effects of the Home Price Downturn," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 195-227.
  25. Engelhardt, Gary V, 1996. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 255-71, May.
  26. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive 535, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  27. Engelhardt, Gary V., 1996. "House prices and home owner saving behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 313-336, June.
  28. Jonathan Skinner, 1991. "Housing and Saving in the United States," NBER Working Papers 3874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Malpezzi, Stephen & Maclennan, Duncan, 2001. "The Long-Run Price Elasticity of Supply of New Residential Construction in the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 278-306, September.
  30. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57 Bank for International Settlements.
  31. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, . "Land Use Regulation and New Construction," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 331, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  32. John V. Duca & Danielle DiMartino & Jessica J. Renier, 2009. "Fed confronts financial crisis by expanding its role as lender of last resort," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 4(feb).
  33. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
  34. Nathalie Girouard & Sveinbjörn Blöndal, 2001. "House Prices and Economic Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 279, OECD Publishing.
  35. Chris Leishman & Glen Bramley, 2005. "A local housing market model with spatial interaction and land-use planning controls," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 37(9), pages 1637-1649, September.
  36. Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset prices and banking distress: a macroeconomic approach," BIS Working Papers 167, Bank for International Settlements.
  37. Duca, John V., 1996. "Deposit Deregulation and the Sensitivity of Housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 207-226, September.
  38. Paul Bennett & Richard Peach & Stavros Peristiani, 1998. "Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance," Staff Reports 45, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  39. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  40. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
  41. Peek, Joe, 1983. "Capital Gains and Personal Saving Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, February.
  42. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
  43. Hildebrand, Philipp M., 2008. "The sub-prime crisis: A central banker's perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 313-320, December.
  44. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," NBER Working Papers 2506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2009:x:15 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
  47. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
  48. Hott, Christian, 2009. "Herding behavior in asset markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 35-56, January.
  49. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-14, June.
  50. Margaret Hwang Smith & Gary Smith, 2006. "Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 1-68.
  51. Slacalek, Jiri, 2009. "What Drives Personal Consumption? The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth," Working Paper Series 1117, European Central Bank.
  52. Jim Clayton, 1996. "Rational Expectations, Market Fundamentals and Housing Price Volatility," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 24(4), pages 441-470.
  53. Miles, David, 1997. "A Household Level Study of the Determinants of Incomes and Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 1-25, January.
  54. Hamilton, Bruce W. & Schwab, Robert M., 1985. "Expected appreciation in urban housing markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 103-118, July.
  55. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert W.R. Price & Christophe André, 2004. "Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 394, OECD Publishing.
  56. Glenn Canner & Karen Dynan & Wayne Passmore, 2002. "Mortgage refinancing in 2001 and early 2002," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 469-481.
  57. Chiuri, Maria Concetta & Jappelli, Tullio, 2001. "Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership: A Comparative Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 2717, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Quigley, John M., 2007. "Regulation and Property Values in the United States: The High Cost of Monopoly," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt5692w323, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  59. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-11, May.
  60. Mayo, Stephen & Sheppard, Stephen, 1996. "Housing Supply under Rapid Economic Growth and Varying Regulatory Stringency: An International Comparison," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 274-289, September.
  61. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca & Harvey Rosenblum, 2007. "From complacency to crisis: financial risk taking in the early 21st century," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(dec).
  62. Palle S. Andersen & Neale Kennedy, 1994. "Household saving and real house prices: an international perspective," BIS Working Papers 20, Bank for International Settlements.
  63. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
  64. Mayer, Christopher J. & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2000. "Residential Construction: Using the Urban Growth Model to Estimate Housing Supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 85-109, July.
  65. Hurst, Erik & Stafford, Frank, 2004. "Home Is Where the Equity Is: Mortgage Refinancing and Household Consumption," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 985-1014, December.
  66. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
  67. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  68. F. Brayton & P. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  69. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Miles, David, 1992. "Housing markets, consumption and financial liberalisation in the major economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1093-1127, June.
  71. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  72. Maclennan, Duncan & Muellbauer, John & Stephens, Mark, 1998. "Asymmetries in Housing and Financial Market Institutions and EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 54-80, Autumn.
  73. Duca, John V., 2006. "Mutual funds and the evolving long-run effects of stock wealth on U.S. consumption," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 202-221.
  74. Dwight Jaffee, 2003. "The Interest Rate Risk of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-29, August.
  75. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England.
  76. Capozza, Dennis R. & Seguin, Paul J., 1996. "Expectations, efficiency, and euphoria in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 369-386, June.
  77. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
  78. Roland Meeks, 2008. "Financial crisis casts shadow over commercial real estate," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(dec).
  79. Christopher J. Mayer & Karen M. Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2008. "The rise in mortgage defaults," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-59, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  80. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  81. G Bramley, 1993. "Land-use planning and the housing market in Britain: the impact on housebuilding and house prices," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 25(7), pages 1021-1051, July.
  82. Williams, David M, 2009. "House prices and financial liberalisation in Australia," MPRA Paper 15212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, 06.
  84. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:33613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (LSERO Manager)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.