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Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance

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  • Paul Bennett
  • Richard Peach
  • Stavros Peristiani

Abstract

We hypothesize that the intrinsic benefit required to trigger a refinancing has become smaller due to a combination of technological, regulatory, and structural changes that have made mortgage origination more competitive and more efficient. To test this hypothesis, we estimate an empirical hazard model of loan survival for two subperiods, using a database that allows us to carefully control for homeowners' credit ratings, equity, loan size, and measurable transaction costs. Our findings strongly confirm that credit ratings and home equity have significant effects on the refinancing probability. In addition, we provide evidence that homeowners postpone refinancing in the face of increased interest rate volatility, consistent with option value theory. Finally, our results clearly support the hypothesis that structural change in the mortgage market has increased homeowners' propensity to refinance.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Bennett & Richard Peach & Stavros Peristiani, 1998. "Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance," Staff Reports 45, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:45
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
    2. John C. Weicher, 1994. "The new structure of the housing finance system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-65.
    3. S. Peristiani & P. Bennett & G. Monsen & R. Peach & J. Raiff, 1996. "Effects of household creditworthiness on mortgage refinancings," Research Paper 9622, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Follain, James R & Scott, Louis O & Yang, T L Tyler, 1992. "Microfoundations of a Mortgage Prepayment Function," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 197-217, June.
    5. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
    6. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kallal, Hedi D., 1997. "Thin Markets, Asymmetric Information, and Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 64-86, January.
    7. Giliberto, S Michael & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1989. "Modeling Conventional Residential Mortgage Refinancings," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 285-299, December.
    8. Bradley, Michael G & Gabriel, Stuart A & Wohar, Mark E, 1995. "The Thrift Crisis, Mortgage-Credit Intermediation, and Housing Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 476-497, May.
    9. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June.
    10. Patric H. Hendershott & Herbert M. Kaufman (ary), 1992. "The market for home mortgage credit: recent changes and future prospects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 99-127.
    11. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Stavros Peristiani & Paul Bennett & Gordon Monsen & Richard Peach & Jonathan Raiff, 1997. "Credit, equity, and mortgage refinancings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 83-99.
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    Keywords

    Mortgages;

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