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The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations

  • Wayne Archer
  • David C. Ling
  • Gary A. McGill

The prepayment behavior of home mortgage borrowers has been widely observed to be inconsistent with behavior implied by classical option theory. A substantial literature has emerged examining the problem, focusing on the characteristics of the mortgage and on the historic path of interest rates in attempting to explain the anomaly. This paper offers contributions to the literature in three respects. First, it explores the influence of household level characteristics upon prepayment behavior, using both householder characteristics and collateral (house) value. Second, it empirically recognizes important interactions between the status of the prepayment option and the influence of income and collateral constraints upon prepayment behavior. Third, it uses a major source of data that has not previously been used in examining the prepayment anomaly: the American Housing Survey. Among the findings are the following: when the household is either collateral constrained or income constrained, or the option is likely to be out of the money, the influence of the option value upon prepayment behavior is less by half. When the status of the option and the influence of potential household constraints are more appropriately recognized, these factors account for nearly all explanatory power otherwise attributable to household demographic characteristics.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5180.

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Date of creation: Jul 1995
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Publication status: published as Regional Science and Urban Economics, vol. 26, no. 3-4, pp. 235-261, June 1996
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5180
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Giliberto, S Michael & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1989. "Modeling Conventional Residential Mortgage Refinancings," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 285-99, December.
  2. Wayne R. Archer & David C. Ling, 1993. "Pricing Mortgage-Backed Securities: Integrating Optimal Call and Empirical Models of Prepayment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 373-404.
  3. Amy Dickinson & Andrea J. Heuson, 1993. "Explaining Refinancing Decisions Using Microdata," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 293-311.
  4. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-92, June.
  5. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1992. "Prepayment, Default, and the Valuation of Mortgage Pass-through Securities," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 221-39, April.
  6. Chester Foster & Robert Order, 1985. "FHA Terminations: A Prelude to Rational Mortgage Pricing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 273-291.
  7. Follain, James R & Scott, Louis O & Yang, T L Tyler, 1992. "Microfoundations of a Mortgage Prepayment Function," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 197-217, June.
  8. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
  9. Peter Linneman & Susan Wachter, 1989. "The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 389-402.
  10. Capone, Charles A, Jr & Cunningham, Donald F, 1992. "Estimating the Marginal Contribution of Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Selection to Termination Probabilities in a Nested Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 333-56, December.
  11. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-43, November.
  12. Brueckner, Jan K., 1994. "The Demand for Mortgage Debt: Some Basic Results," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 251-262, December.
  13. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December.
  14. Eduardo S. Schwartz & Walter N. Torous, 1993. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Decisions: A Poisson Regression Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 431-449.
  15. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. John M. Quigley & Robert Order, 1990. "Efficiency in the Mortgage Market: The Borrower's Perspective," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 237-252.
  17. Goodman, John Jr. & Ittner, John B., 1992. "The accuracy of home owners' estimates of house value," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 339-357, December.
  18. Peter Chinloy, 1993. "Elective Mortgage Prepayment: Termination and Curtailment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 313-332.
  19. Quigley, John M., 2006. "Urban Economics," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt0jr0p2tk, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  20. S. Michael Giliberto & David C. Ling, 1992. "An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Residential Mortgage Debt," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(3), pages 393-426.
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