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An Early Assessment of Residential Mortgage Performance in China

  • Yongheng Deng

    ()

  • Della Zheng

    ()

  • Changfeng Ling

    ()

The residential mortgage market becomes a financial engine for the booming residential housing development and sustained economic growth in China. Our study provides the first rigorous empirical analysis on the earlier performance of residential mortgage market in China based on a unique micro dataset of mortgage loan history collected from a major residential mortgage lender in China. We found that while the option theory fails to explain prepayment and default behavior in the residential mortgage market in China, other non-option theory related financial economic factors play major roles in determining the prepayment and default risks in China. We also found that borrower’s characteristics are significant in determining prepayment behavior, hence may be used as an effective tool for screening potential high risk borrowers in the loan origination process. Adopting a risk-based pricing in residential mortgage lending in China can improve the efficiency of the market, and enhance the credit availability to the most needed households, i.e., the younger households, blue-collar workers, lower income households, and help them become homeowners. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-005-1368-7
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Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 31 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 117-136

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:31:y:2005:i:2:p:117-136
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

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  1. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
  2. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 1995. "ARM Wrestling: Valuing Adjustable Rate Mortgages Indexed to the Eleventh District Cost of Funds," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 23(3), pages 311-345.
  3. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February.
  4. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
  5. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Walter J. Muller & James F. Epperson, 1990. "The Valuation and Analysis of Adjustable Rate Mortgages," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(12), pages 1417-1431, December.
  6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  7. Wayne Archer & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 1995. "The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations," NBER Working Papers 5180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael J. Brennan & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 1985. "Determinants of GNMA Mortgage Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-228.
  9. Stephen A. Buser & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1984. "Pricing Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages," NBER Working Papers 1525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-43, November.
  11. Yongheng Deng, . "Mortgage Termination: An Empirical Hazard Model with Stochastic Term Structure," Working Papers _002, University of California at Berkeley, Econometrics Laboratory Software Archive.
  12. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
  13. Patric H. Hendershott & Robert Van Order, 1987. "Pricing Mortgages: An Interpretation of the Models and Results," NBER Working Papers 2290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Quigley, John M., 2006. "Urban Economics," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt0jr0p2tk, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
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