IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ire/issued/v23n022020p777-813.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time Preferences, Mortgage Choice and Mortgage Default

Author

Listed:
  • Sumit Agarwal

    () (National University of Singapore)

  • Yongheng Deng

    () (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • Jia He

    () (Nankai University)

Abstract

The global economy is in the midst of a recession triggered by the ongoing pandemic of a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The shutdown of the economy and a surge in the unemployment rate also cause stress to the US housing and mortgage system and create significant impacts on the default behaviour of mortgage borrowers. The potential rise in mortgage defaults may renew the long-standing debate over the empirical observation of why some mortgage borrowers do not default as "ruthlessly¨ as the finance theory predicts. In this paper, we propose an alternative theory to explain for the different default behaviours among mortgage borrowers. We hypothesize that the difference among time preferences across mortgage choices is one of the underlying factors that causes the heterogeneity in default patterns. Borrowers can either have a present-biased preference (overvaluing immediate outcomes), or a time-consistent preference (with standard exponential discounting). Borrowers with a present-biased preference are more likely to accept back-loaded mortgages that minimize up-front costs, even though this increases their risk of going ¡§underwater¡¨ and entering default when an adverse shock, such as the one from the ongoing pandemic, occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumit Agarwal & Yongheng Deng & Jia He, 2020. "Time Preferences, Mortgage Choice and Mortgage Default," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 777-813.
  • Handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:23:n:02:2020:p:777-813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gssinst.org/irer/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/v23n2-time-preferences-mortgages-choice-and-mortgage-default.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Smith, Patricia K. & Bogin, Barry & Bishai, David, 2005. "Are time preference and body mass index associated?: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 259-270, July.
    2. James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Taewon Kim, 1993. "Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 247-263, September.
    3. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    4. Theresa Kuchler, 2013. "Sticking to Your Plan: Hyperbolic Discounting and Credit Card Debt Paydown," Discussion Papers 12-025, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    6. Schwartz, Eduardo S & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Prepayment and the Valuation of Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 375-392, June.
    7. Goldberg, Gerson M. & Harding, John P., 2003. "Investment characteristics of low- and moderate-income mortgage loans," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 151-180, September.
    8. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
    9. Stephan Meier & Charles Sprenger, 2010. "Present-Biased Preferences and Credit Card Borrowing," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 193-210, January.
    10. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316, September.
    11. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    12. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    13. Laibson, David, 1998. "Life-cycle consumption and hyperbolic discount functions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 861-871, May.
    14. Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1991. "Defaults on mortgage obligations and capital requirements for U.S. savings institutions : A policy perspective," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 353-369, April.
    15. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice and Procrastination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(1), pages 121-160.
    16. Per Krusell & Burhanettin Kuruşçu & Anthony A. Smith Jr., 2010. "Temptation and Taxation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(6), pages 2063-2084, November.
    17. John M. Clapp & Yongheng Deng & Xudong An, 2006. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Competing Mortgage Termination Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 243-273, June.
    18. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    19. Vassilis Lekkas & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 1993. "Loan Loss Severity and Optimal Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 353-371, December.
    20. John P. Harding, 1997. "Estimating Borrower Mobility from Observed Prepayments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(3), pages 347-371, September.
    21. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    22. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    25. Stefano DellaVigna & M. Daniele Paserman, 2005. "Job Search and Impatience," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 23(3), pages 527-588, July.
    26. Kau, James B & Slawson, V Carlos, Jr, 2002. "Frictions, Heterogeneity and Optimality in Mortgage Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 239-260, May.
    27. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Robert Order & Peter Zorn, 2000. "Income, Location and Default: Some Implications for Community Lending," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(3), pages 385-404.
    29. Stanton, Richard Henry, 1996. "Unobservable Heterogeneity and Rational Learning: Pool-Specific versus Generic Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May.
    30. Courtemanche, Charles & Carden, Art, 2011. "Supersizing supercenters? The impact of Walmart Supercenters on body mass index and obesity," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 165-181, March.
    31. Quigley, John M & Van Order, Robert, 1995. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 99-117, September.
    32. Titman, Sheridan D & Torous, Walter N, 1989. " Valuing Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent-Claims Approach to Pricing Risky Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 345-373, June.
    33. Hall, Arden, 2000. "Controlling for Burnout in Estimating Mortgage Prepayment Models," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 215-232, December.
    34. Stanton, Richard, 1995. "Rational Prepayment and the Valuation Mortgage-Backed Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 677-708.
    35. Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2005. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 739-764, December.
    36. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    37. Calhoun, Charles A & Deng, Yongheng, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis of Fixed- and Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Terminations," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 9-33, Jan.-Marc.
    38. Stefano DellaVigna & Ulrike Malmendier, 2006. "Paying Not to Go to the Gym," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 694-719, June.
    39. Kerry D. Vandell, 1993. "Handing Over the Keys: A Perspective on Mortgage Default Research," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(3), pages 211-246, September.
    40. Paul S. Mills & John Kiff, 2007. "Money for Nothing and Checks for Free; Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets," IMF Working Papers 2007/188, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    2. Fang, Lu & Munneke, Henry J., 2021. "A spatial analysis of borrowers’ mortgage termination decision – A nonparametric approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Xudong An & John Clapp & Yongheng Deng, 2010. "Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 245-271, October.
    4. Jian Chen & Jin Xiang & Tyler T. Yang, 2018. "Re-Default Risk of Modified Mortgages," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 1-40.
    5. Kristopher Gerardi & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Lee E. Ohanian & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Can’t Pay or Won’t Pay? Unemployment, Negative Equity, and Strategic Default," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(3), pages 1098-1131.
    6. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    7. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    8. Bilgi Yilmaz & A. Sevtap Selcuk-Kestel, 2019. "Computation of Hedging Coefficients for Mortgage Default and Prepayment Options: Malliavin Calculus Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 673-697, November.
    9. Hyeongjun Kim & Hoon Cho & Doojin Ryu, 2018. "Characteristics of Mortgage Terminations: an Analysis of a Loan-Level Dataset," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 647-676, November.
    10. Hartarska, Valentina M. & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2001. "Credit Counseling And Mortgage Loan Default By Rural And Urban Low Income Households," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20740, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    11. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    12. Hartarska, Valentina M. & Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio, 2002. "A Comparison Of Option-Theoretic And Choice-Theoretic Approaches To Evaluating Alternative Financial Technologies For Mortgage Loans To Low-Income Households," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19645, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Fabian Herweg & Daniel Müller, 2011. "Performance of procrastinators: on the value of deadlines," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 70(3), pages 329-366, March.
    14. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 609-632, May.
    15. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    16. Berndt, Antje & Hollifield, Burton & Sandås, Patrik, 2017. "What Broker Charges Reveal about Mortgage Credit Risk," Working Paper Series 336, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Tyler Yang & Che-Chun Lin & Man Cho, 2011. "Collateral Risk in Residential Mortgage Defaults," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 115-142, February.
    18. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, 2015. "Effects of prepayment regulations on termination of subprime mortgages," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 445-456.
    19. Chao Yue Tian & Roberto G. Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.
    20. Chao Tian & Roberto Quercia & Sarah Riley, 2016. "Unemployment as an Adverse Trigger Event for Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 28-49, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mortgage Default; Mortgage Choice; Heterogeneity; Present-Biased Preference; Dynamic Inconsistency; Covid-19; Pandemic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ire:issued:v:23:n:02:2020:p:777-813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (IRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster). General contact details of provider: https://www.gssinst.org/gssinst/index.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.