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Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy

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  • Yongheng Deng

    (NUS - National University of Singapore)

  • Eric Girardin

    (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)

  • Roselyne Joyeux

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

In a similar way to the stock market, the housing market in China has often been portrayed as highly speculative, giving rise to "bubble" concerns. Over the last decade, residential prices increased every year on average by double digits in Beijing or Shanghai. However many observers and researchers argue that fundamentals of the housing sector, both sector-specific and macroeconomic, may have been the driving force behind housing price volatility. While existing empirical work exclusively relies on the government housing prices which may suffer from the well-documented downward bias, this paper uses original high frequency unit price as well as transaction series for the residential resale housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai between January 2005 and December 2010 to test alternative hypotheses about housing prices volatility.

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  • Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," Post-Print hal-01996210, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01996210
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    1. Kyungwon Kim & Jae Wook Song, 2020. "Detecting Possible Reduction of the Housing Bubble in Korea for Different Residential Types and Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, February.

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