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Asset Price and Monetary Policy - The Effect of Expectation Formation

Author

Listed:
  • Nan-Kuang Chen

    (National Taiwan University and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • Han-Liang Cheng

    (Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper is a theoretical study of the effects of monetary policy reacting to fluctuations in asset price, accounting for the expectation formation effect of policy regime shift in a DSGE model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that the effect of expectation formation can substantially influence the movement of asset price. In contrast to the linear policy rule, under the regime switching policy rule reacting to asset price can generate substantial stabilization effect: the "expected" inflation-output volatility frontier shifts downward, thereby lowering both the volatilities of inflation and output for all possible policy choices. The trade-off between the expected volatility of inflation and that of output, as demonstrated by the "Taylor curve," greatly diminishes, implying that the Taylor rule which considers expectation formation effect and asset price movement expands the set of monetary policy choices available for monetary authority.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng, 2011. "Asset Price and Monetary Policy - The Effect of Expectation Formation," Working Papers 032011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:032011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Paolo Surico & Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Sala, 2005. "The Fed and the Stock Market," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 293, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    2. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:276-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Price; Monetary Policy; Regime Switching; DSGE;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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