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Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective

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  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio

Abstract

This paper investigates the international spillovers of housing demand shocks on real economic activity. The global economy is modeled using a Global VAR, with a novel house price data set for both advanced and emerging economies. The impulse responses to an identified U.S. housing demand shock confirm the existence of strong international spillovers to advanced economies. In contrast, the response of some major emerging economies is not significantly different from zero. Moreover, the analysis of synchronized housing demand shocks speaks in favor of the recent evidence of increased resilience of emerging economies to shocks originating in advanced economies; and it also suggests that a close monitoring of housing cycles in advanced economies as well as in emerging economies should be of interest for policy-makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:37:y:2013:i:c:p:215-238
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    2. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Marco E Terrones, 2013. "Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 119-166.
    3. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-100.
    4. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    5. Francis E Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2012. "Developing Housing Finance Systems," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Alexandra Heath & Frank Packer & Callan Windsor (ed.), Property Markets and Financial Stability Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Alessandro Rebucci & Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi & M. Hashem Pesaran & TengTeng Xu, 2012. "China's Emergence in the World Economy and Business Cycles in Latin America," ECONOMIA JOURNAL, THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-75, January.
    7. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Floros, Christos, 2016. "Dynamic interdependencies among the housing market, stock market, policy uncertainty and the macroeconomy in the United Kingdom," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 111-122.
    8. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    9. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2015. "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Multivariate Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112999, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    11. Paredes, Joan, 2017. "Subsidising car purchases in the euro area: any spill-over on production?," Working Paper Series 2094, European Central Bank.
    12. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:130-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Fadejeva, Ludmila & Feldkircher, Martin & Reininger, Thomas, 2017. "International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-25.
    14. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2013. "International transmission of financial stress: Evidence from a GVAR," Kiel Working Papers 1844, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    15. repec:eee:jimfin:v:74:y:2017:i:c:p:88-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ambrogio Cesa‐Bianchi & Luis Felipe Cespedes & Alessandro Rebucci, 2015. "Global Liquidity, House Prices, and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 301-335, March.
    17. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    18. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Eguren-Martin, Fernando & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Foreign booms, domestic busts: the global dimension of banking crises," Bank of England working papers 644, Bank of England.
    19. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    20. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2015. "Examining asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the euro area: Evidence from a mixed cross-section global VAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 195-215.
    21. Dovern, Jonas & van Roye, Björn, 2014. "International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 1-17.
    22. Milcheva, Stanimira & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Bank integration and co-movements across housing markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 148-171.
    23. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei, 2016. "Components of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Predictability of US Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantile Approach," Working Papers 201639, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    24. Rangan Gupta & Xiaojin Sun, 2016. "Housing Market Spillovers in South Africa: Evidence from an Estimated Small Open Economy DSGE Model," Working Papers 201641, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    25. Girum D. Abate & Luc Anselin, 2016. "House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics," CREATES Research Papers 2016-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing demand shocks; Great recession; Identification of shocks; Emerging market economies; Global VAR; International business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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