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When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

Author

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  • Havranek, Tomas
  • Kolcunova, Dominika
  • Bajzik, Josef

Abstract

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from -12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,447 estimates from 31 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 69 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, omission of important variables (liquidity and long-term rates) likewise exaggerates the effects of short-term rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

Suggested Citation

  • Havranek, Tomas & Kolcunova, Dominika & Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 16196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16196
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    2. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Novak, 2023. "Do Shareholder Activism Announcements Affect Stock Prices? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 2023/17, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Federica Ciocchetta & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Mistretta, 2024. "What Drives House Prices in Europe?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1089-1121, October.
    5. Tersoo David Iorngurum, 2025. "The exchange rate pass‐through to domestic prices: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 1092-1124, July.
    6. Zuzana Irsova & Hristos Doucouliagos & Tomas Havranek & T. D. Stanley, 2024. "Meta‐analysis of social science research: A practitioner's guide," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1547-1566, December.
    7. Enzinger, Matthias & Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp & Prante, Franz & Romero, Daniel F., 2025. "The overstated effects of conventional monetary policy on output and prices," I4R Discussion Paper Series 264, The Institute for Replication (I4R).
    8. Sha, Yezhou & Wang, Zilong & Yin, Zhichao, 2024. "House purchase restriction and stock market participation: Unveiling the role of nonpecuniary consideration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 390-406.
    9. Kroupova, Katerina & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2024. "Student Employment and Education: A Meta-Analysis," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    10. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzík, 2025. "Borrower‐based macroprudential measures and credit growth: How biased is the existing literature?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 66-102, February.
    12. Bajzík, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2023. "Does Shareholder Activism Create Value? A Meta-Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 18233, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    14. Stefan Faridani, 2025. "When is p-hacking detectable?," Papers 2506.20035, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.
    15. Salguero, Ricardo Alonzo Fernandez, 2025. "Un análisis de la evidencia y teoría de la política monetaria a través de los meta-análisis," SocArXiv 9sypa_v1, Center for Open Science.
    16. Amar Iqbal Anwar & Colin F. Mang, 2022. "Do remittances cause Dutch Disease? A meta-analytic review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(36), pages 4131-4153, August.
    17. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    18. Samuel Fiifi Eshun & Evzen Kocenda, 2025. "What Really Drives Financial Inclusion? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis of 3,817 Estimates," Working Papers IES 2025/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2025.
    19. Bajzik, Josef, 2023. "Is the role of shareholder activism in corporate governance overestimated?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    20. Fan Yang & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Novak, 2024. "Is research on hedge fund performance published selectively? A quantitative survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 1085-1131, September.
    21. Sebastian Gechert, 2022. "Reconsidering macroeconomic policy prescriptions with meta-analysis [Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 576-590.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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