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When is p-hacking detectable?

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  • Stefan Faridani

Abstract

We show that some forms of p-hacking cannot be detected by examining the histogram of t-statistics or their p-values. Even when p-hacking is detectable, standard tests may lack power. We propose a novel test that detects every form of selective reporting that is detectable from the distribution of reported t-statistics. Our test statistic is the distance between the smoothed empirical t-curve and the set of possible honest distributions. This projection test is sharp and can only be evaded by selective reporting that also evades all other valid tests of restrictions on the t-curve. We also show how to avoid spurious rejections caused by some benign distortions in the t-curve. Applying the test to the Brodeur et al. (2020) meta-dataset, we find that the t-curves for RCTs and IVs are more distorted than could arise by chance, (de)rounding, or the Student-t approximation.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Faridani, 2025. "When is p-hacking detectable?," Papers 2506.20035, arXiv.org, revised May 2026.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2506.20035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    2. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    3. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2011. "A Spectral Method For Deconvolving A Density," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(3), pages 546-581, June.
    4. Stefan Faridani, 2024. "Testing for Underpowered Literatures," Papers 2406.13122, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    5. Megan L Head & Luke Holman & Rob Lanfear & Andrew T Kahn & Michael D Jennions, 2015. "The Extent and Consequences of P-Hacking in Science," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    7. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Lubica Laslopova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2024. "Publication and Attenuation Biases in Measuring Skill Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(5), pages 1187-1200, September.
    8. Abel Brodeur & Nikolai Cook & Anthony Heyes, 2020. "Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(11), pages 3634-3660, November.
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