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When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Dominika Ehrenbergerova

    (Czech National Bank
    Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University)

  • Josef Bajzik

    (Czech National Bank
    Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University)

  • Tomas Havranek

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University
    CEPR)

Abstract

Several central banks have leaned against the wind in the housing market by increasing the policy rate preemptively to prevent a bubble. Yet the empirical literature provides mixed results on the impact of short-term interest rates on house prices: the estimated semi-elasticities range from $$-12$$ - 12 to positive values. To assign a pattern to these differences, we collect 1,555 estimates from 37 individual studies that cover 45 countries and 72 years. We then relate the estimates to 39 characteristics of the financial system, business cycle, and estimation approach. Our main results are threefold. First, the mean reported estimate is exaggerated by publication bias, because insignificant results are underreported. Second, inclusion of controls correlated with policy rates (credit or money supply) decreases the estimated effects of policy rates on house prices. Third, the effects are stronger in countries with more developed mortgage markets and generally later in the cycle when the yield curve is flat and house prices enter an upward spiral.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:71:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1057_s41308-022-00185-5
    DOI: 10.1057/s41308-022-00185-5
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    7. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Lubica Laslopova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2020. "Skilled and Unskilled Labor Are Less Substitutable than Commonly Thought," Working Papers IES 2020/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    10. Irsova, Zuzana & Bom, Pedro Ricardo Duarte & Havranek, Tomas & Rachinger, Heiko, 2023. "Spurious Precision in Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv 3qp2w, Center for Open Science.
    11. Cazachevici, Alina & Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Remittances and economic growth: A meta-analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    13. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    14. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    15. Mandon, Pierre & Woldemichael, Martha Tesfaye, 2023. "Has Chinese aid benefited recipient countries? Evidence from a meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    16. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    17. Havranek, Tomas & Kroupova, Katerina & Irsova, Zuzana, 2021. "Student Employment and Education: A Meta-Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 16550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    19. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Laslopova, Lubica & Zeynalova, Olesia, 2020. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Skilled and Unskilled Labor: A Meta-Analysis," MPRA Paper 102598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Xindong Xue & Mingmei Cheng & Wangyongxin Zhang, 2021. "Does Education Really Improve Health? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 71-105, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; House prices; Monetary policy transmission; Meta-analysis; Publication bias; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Meta-Research in Economics

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