IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v34y2012i6p849-863.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul
  • Bashar, Omar H.M.N.
  • Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali

Abstract

This paper models the role of monetary policy in the Australian housing market using structural vector autoregression model. Our results show that a contractionary monetary policy significantly reduces housing activity but does not exert any significant negative effect on the real house prices. The housing output and real house prices also respond significantly to shocks stemming from housing supply, housing demand and a number of other variables. The findings further suggest that monetary policy rule in Australia takes into account the changes in house price along with the usual targets of inflation and output gap. On the backdrop of the observed high house prices and increased affordability problem, the findings of this paper are expected to shed some lights on the current policy environment pertaining to the Australian housing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2012. "Monetary policy and the housing market in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 849-863.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:6:p:849-863
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2012.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893812000853
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aoki, Kosuke & Proudman, James & Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2004. "House prices, consumption, and monetary policy: a financial accelerator approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 414-435, October.
    2. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2002. "Optimal monetary policy with durable and non-durable goods," International Finance Discussion Papers 748, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    4. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    5. Iacoviello, Matteo & Minetti, Raoul, 2008. "The credit channel of monetary policy: Evidence from the housing market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 69-96, March.
    6. Haug, Alfred A. & Karagedikli, Ozer & Ranchhod, Satish, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms and currency unions: A vector error correction approach to a Trans-Tasman currency union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 55-74, February.
    7. Burgstaller, Johann & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "How do bank lending rates and the supply of loans react to shifts in loan demand in the U.K.?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 778-791, November.
    8. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
    9. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    10. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler, 2007. "Housing Wealth, Stock Market Wealth and Consumption: A Panel Analysis for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 117-130, June.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation: A factor augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, November.
    12. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    13. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    14. Luci Ellis & Laura Berger-Thomson, 2004. "Housing Construction Cycles and Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 335, Econometric Society.
    15. Catte, Pietro & Cova, Pietro & Pagano, Patrizio & Visco, Ignazio, 2011. "The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 787-803.
    16. Renée A. Fry & Vance L. Martin & Nicholas Voukelatos, 2010. "Overvaluation in Australian Housing and Equity Markets: Wealth Effects or Monetary Policy?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 465-485, December.
    17. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
    18. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
    19. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    20. Marek Jarocinski & Frank Smets, 2008. "House prices and the stance of monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 339-366.
    21. Yang, Zan & Wang, Songtao & Campbell, Robert, 2010. "Monetary policy and regional price boom in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 865-879, November.
    22. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Hendricks, Torben W. & Kempa, Bernd, 2009. "The credit channel in U.S. economic history," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-68.
    25. Glenn Otto, 2007. "The Growth of House Prices in Australian Capital Cities: What Do Economic Fundamentals Explain?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 40(3), pages 225-238, September.
    26. Gavin Wood & Richard Watson & Paul Flatau, 2006. "Microsimulation Modelling of Tenure Choice and Grants to Promote Home Ownership," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 39(1), pages 14-34, March.
    27. Taufiq Choudhry, 2010. "Does Interest Rate Volatility Affect The Us Demand For Housing? Evidence From The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Method," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(4), pages 326-344, July.
    28. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
    29. von Arnim, Rudiger, 2009. "Recession and rebalancing: How the housing and credit crises will impact US real activity," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 309-324, May.
    30. Peter Abelson & Roselyne Joyeux & George Milunovich & Demi Chung, 2005. "Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(s1), pages 96-103, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nwabisa Kolisi & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Changes in the relationshp between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," Working Papers 1704, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jul 2017.
    2. Gustafsson, Peter & Stockhammar, Pär & Österholm, Pär, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of a decline in housing prices in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 242-255.
    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Asymmetric pass-through effects from monetary policy to housing prices in South Africa," MPRA Paper 70258, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Valadkhani, Abbas & Costello, Greg & Ratti, Ronald, 2016. "House price cycles in Australia’s four largest capital cities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-22.
    5. Nwabisa Kolisi & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Changes in the relationshp between interest rates and housing prices in South Africa around the 2007 financial crisis," Working Papers 1704, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jul 2017.
    6. repec:eee:pacfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:113-126 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary transmission; Housing market; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:6:p:849-863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.