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Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis

  • Matteo LUCIANI

This paper estimates a Structural Dynamic Factor Model on a panel of 102 US quarterly series. We model economic comovements by means of five underlying structural shocks (oil price, productivity, aggregate demand, monetary policy, and housing demand). The results of the benchmark model (impulse responses and variance decomposition) are in line with those predicted by economic theory and estimated in the empirical literature. We show that after the reforms to the housing finance sector starting in the early 1980s, housing demand shocks account for a slightly higher portion of model variability, while the role of monetary policy in determining residential investment fluctuations is slightly decreased. The model analyzes the sources of the fluctuations in the first decade of the 2000: we find that monetary policy shocks contributed to both the boom and bust in housing.

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Paper provided by Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance in its series Working Papers with number wp2010-7.

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Handle: RePEc:itt:wpaper:wp2010-7
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  1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  3. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
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  5. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2004. "The generalised dynamic factor model: consistency and rates," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10133, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  7. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Vladimir Klyuev & Paul Mills, 2007. "Is Housing Wealth an “ATM”? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(3), pages 539-561, July.
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  10. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
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  14. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  15. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  16. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
  17. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2002. "Tracking Greenspan: Systematic and Unsystematic Monetary Policy Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 3550, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Jon Faust & Eric M. Leeper, 1994. "When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results?," Working Paper 94-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  20. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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