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New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time

Author

Listed:
  • Filippo Altissimo

    (Brevan Howard Asset Management)

  • Riccardo Cristadoro

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Mario Forni

    (Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia, CEPR, and RECent)

  • Marco Lippi

    (Università di Roma 'La Sapienza')

  • Giovanni Veronese

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Removal of short-run dynamics from a stationary time series to isolate the medium- to long-run component can be obtained by a bandpass filter. However, bandpass filters are infinite moving averages and can therefore deteriorate at the end of the sample. This is a well-known result in the literature isolating the business cycle in integrated series. We show that the same problem arises with our application to stationary time series. In this paper, we develop a method to obtain smoothing of a stationary time series by using only contemporaneous values of a large data set, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Our method is applied to the construction of New Eurocoin, an indicator of economic activity for the euro area, which is an estimate, in real time, of the medium- to long-run component of GDP growth. As our data set is monthly and most of the series are updated with a short delay, we are able to produce a monthly real-time indicator. As an estimate of the medium- to long-run GDP growth, Eurocoin performs better than the bandpass filter at the end of the sample in terms of both fitting and turning-point signaling. (c) 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:92:y:2010:i:4:p:1024-1034
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General

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