The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation
This paper proposes a factor model with infinite dynamics and nonorthogonal idiosyncratic components. The model, which we call the generalized dynamic-factor model, is novel to the literature and generalizes the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), as well as the exact factor model à la Sargent and Sims (1977). We provide identification conditions, propose an estimator of the common components, prove convergence as both time and cross-sectional size go to infinity at appropriate rates, and present simulation results. We use our model to construct a coincident index for the European Union. Such index is defined as the common component of real GDP within a model including several macroeconomic variables for each European country. © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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|Date of creation:||01 Nov 2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in: The Review of Economics and Statistics (2000) v.82 n° 4,p.540-554|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: CP135, 50, avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles|
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- Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1995.
"Dynamic Common Factors in Large Cross-Sections,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, December.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Mario Forni, 1999.
"National policies and local economies: Europe and the United States,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/10181, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1997. "National Policies and Local Economies: Europe and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1632, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(06), pages 1113-1141, December.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 2509, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
- Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998.
"Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 453-473.
- Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Chamberlain, Gary, 1983. "Funds, Factors, and Diversification in Arbitrage Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1305-23, September.
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