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On the sources of the Great Moderation

Author

Listed:
  • Jordi Gali
  • Luca Gambetti

Abstract

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidence points to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behind the observed changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2007:i:nov:x:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Régis Barnichon, 2007. "Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations," CEP Discussion Papers dp0819, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Salmsnov, Oleg & Babina, Natalia & Koba, Ekaterina & Koba, Ekaterina & Lopatina, Olga, 2017. "Efficiency of Monetary Policy Mechanisms Before and After the 2008 Financial Crisis in the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 112276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2017.
    4. Erdemlioglu, Deniz M & Xiao, Wei, 2008. "Indeterminate Equilibria in New Keynesian DSGE Model: An Application to the US Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 10322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    6. Jose De Gregorio, 2007. "Defining Inflation Targets, the Policy Horizon and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 415, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 621-633, 04-05.
    8. José De Gregorio, 2007. "Algunas Reflexiones sobre el Crecimiento Económico en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 20, Central Bank of Chile.

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