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The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity

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  • Galí, Jordi
  • van Rens, Thijs

Abstract

We document three changes in postwar US macroeconomic dynamics: (i) the procyclicality of labor productivity vanished, (ii) the relative volatility of employment rose, and (iii) the relative (and absolute) volatility of the real wage rose. We propose an explanation for all three changes that is based on a common source: the decline in labor market turnover, which reduced hiring frictions. We develop a simple model with hiring frictions, variable effort, and endogenous wage rigidities to illustrate the mechanisms underlying our explanation. We show that the decline in turnover may also have contributed to the observed decline in output volatility.

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  • Galí, Jordi & van Rens, Thijs, 2014. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labor Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 9853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9853
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    Keywords

    effort choice; hiring frictions; labor hoarding; labor market turnover; wage rigidities;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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