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Slow Recoveries: A Structural Interpretation

  • JORDI GALÍ
  • FRANK SMETS
  • RAFAEL WOUTERS

An analysis of the performance of GDP, employment and other labor market variables following the troughs in postwar U.S. business cycles points to much slower recoveries in the three most recent episodes, but does not reveal any significant change over time in the relation between GDP and employment. This leads us to characterize the last three episodes as slow recoveries, as opposed to jobless recoveries. We use the estimated New Keynesian model in Galí-Smets- Wouters (2011) to provide a structural interpretation for the slower recoveries since the early nineties.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2012.00552.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages: 9-30

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:44:y:2012:i::p:9-30
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "Involuntary unemployment and the business cycle," CQER Working Paper 2010-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  3. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  5. Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2013. "Unemployment and business cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 1089, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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