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Declining labor turnover and turbulence

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  • Shigeru Fujita

Abstract

Superseded by 18-06. The purpose of this paper is to identify possible sources of the secular decline in the job separation rate over the past four decades. I use a simple labor matching model with two types of workers, experienced and inexperienced, where the former type faces a risk of skill loss during unemployment. When the skill loss occurs, the worker is required to restart his career and thus suffers a drop in his wage. I show that a higher risk of skill loss results in a lower separation rate. The key mechanism is that the experienced workers accept lower wages in exchange for keeping their jobs.

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  • Shigeru Fujita, 2015. "Declining labor turnover and turbulence," Working Papers 15-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:15-29
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    Cited by:

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    3. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    4. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2016. "The Rise of Part-time Employment," Sciences Po publications 2016-04, Sciences Po.
    5. Henry Hyatt & James Spletzer, 2013. "The recent decline in employment dynamics," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, December.
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    7. Cun, Wukuang & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "A spatiotemporal equilibrium model of migration and housing interlinkages," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Lalé, Etienne, 2017. "Worker reallocation across occupations: Confronting data with theory," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 51-68.
    9. Rahn, Daniela & Weber, Enzo, 2019. "Patterns Of Unemployment Dynamics In Germany," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 322-357, January.
    10. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2013. "Declining Migration wihin the US: The Role of the Labor Market," Working Papers 13-53, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Oladunni, Sunday, 2019. "External Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Oil-exporting Small Open Economies: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kuhn, Moritz & Ploj, Gasper, 2020. "Job Stability, Earnings Dynamics, and Life-Cycle Savings," IZA Discussion Papers 13887, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Pei, Yun & Xie, Zoe, 2021. "A quantitative theory of time-consistent unemployment insurance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 848-870.
    14. Guimarães, Luís & Mazeda Gil, Pedro, 2022. "Looking ahead at the effects of automation in an economy with matching frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    15. Claudia Macaluso, 2017. "Skill Remoteness and Post-layoff Labor Market Outcomes," 2017 Meeting Papers 569, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Consolo, Agostino & Petroulakis, Filippos, 2022. "Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave?," Working Paper Series 2703, European Central Bank.
    17. Manning, Alan & Mazeine, Graham, 2020. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the UK, Germany and the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Shigeru Fujita, 2012. "Labor market anxiety and the downward trend in the job separation rate," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 1-7.
    19. Régis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Declining Labor Force Attachment and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-88, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Steven Lugauer, 2012. "The Supply of Skills in the Labor Force and Aggregate Output Volatility," Working Papers 005, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7arg7blugi9b2o08qjafcpg8e2 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Gorry, Aspen & Munro, David & vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Experience, skill composition, and the persistence of unemployment fluctuations," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    23. Manning, Alan & Mazeine, Graham, 2022. "Subjective job insecurity and the rise of the precariat: evidence from the United Kingdom, Germany, and the United States," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114258, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Labor Market Fluidity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 20479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Bharman Gulati & Stephan Weiler, 2021. "Risk, Recessions, and Resilience: Towards Sustainable Local Labor Markets through Employment Portfolio Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-20, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Separation Rate; Wage Loss; Turbulence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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