The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply
The U.S. labor force participation rate rose rapidly during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. It then flattened out in the 1990s, and since 2000 it has fallen, without much sign of an imminent rebound. We attempt to distinguish between cyclical and structural influences on the participation rate by estimating the roles of demographic factors, the business cycle, and other factors. We conclude that the drop in labor force participation between 2000 and 2003 was due largely to cyclical factors, but that this decline and subsequent movements occurred against the backdrop of a longer-run downtrend. We estimate that the actual participation rate at the end of 2005 was close to the estimated trend level. However, barring major changes in policy or behavioral trends, the participation rate will likely continue to trend downward in coming years.
Volume (Year): 37 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (202) 797-6000
Fax: (202) 797-6004
Web page: http://www.brookings.edu/economics.aspx
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:37:y:2006:i:2006-1:p:69-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jennifer Ambrosino)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.