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Technology Shocks and Monetary Policy: Assessing the Fed's Performance

  • Jordi Gali
  • J. David Lopez-Salido
  • Javier Valles

The purpose of the present paper is twofold. First, we characterize the Fed's systematic response to technology shocks and its implications for U.S. output, hours and inflation. Second, we evaluate the extent to which those responses can be accounted for by a simple monetary policy rule (including the optimal one) in the context of a standard business cycle model with sticky prices. Our main results can be described as follows: First, we detect significant differences across periods in the response of the economy (as well as the Fed's) to a technology shock. Second, the Fed's response to a technology shock in the Volcker-Greenspan period is consistent with an optimal monetary policy rule. Third, in the pre-Volcker period the Fed's policy tended to over stabilize output at the cost of generating excessive inflation volatility. Our evidence reinforces recent results in the literature suggesting an improvement in the Fed's performance.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w8768.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8768.

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Date of creation: Feb 2002
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Publication status: published as Gali, Jordi, J. David Lopez-Salido and Javier Valles. "Technology Shocks And Monetary Policy: Assessing The Fed's Performance," Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003, v50(4,May), 723-743.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8768
Note: EFG ME
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 2001. "The Case for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August.
  6. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. J. Andres & J. D. Lopez-Salido & Javier Valles, 2000. "Intertemporal Substitution and the Liquidity Effect in a Sticky Price Model," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1698, Econometric Society.
  8. Woodford Michael, 2002. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-53, February.
  9. Michael Woodford, 1996. "Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?," NBER Working Papers 5684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Ellen R. McGrattan, 1999. "Predicting the effects of Federal Reserve policy in a sticky-price model: an analytical approach," Working Papers 598, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
  12. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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