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Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Adnan Haider

    (Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, Pakistan.)

  • Musleh-ud Din

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE))

  • Ejaz Ghani

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE))

Abstract

This paper develops an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New Keynesian micro-foundations. Alongside standard features of emerging economies, such as a combination of producer and local currency pricing for exporters, foreign capital inflow in terms of foreign direct investment and oil imports, this model also incorporates informal labor and production sectors. This customization intensifies the exposure of a developing economy to internal and external shocks in a manner consistent with the stylized facts of Business Cycle Fluctuations. We then focus on optimal monetary policy analysis by evaluating alternative interest rate rules and calibrate the model using data from Pakistan economy. The learning and determinacy analysis suggest that monetary authority in developing economies should broadly follow Taylor principle and put some weight on exchange rate fluctuations even if there is relatively less inertia in the setting of policy interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Adnan Haider & Musleh-ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," SBP Working Paper Series 65, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:65
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    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp65.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anuar Sanusi & Faurani Santi Singagerda & Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani, 2021. "World Oil Price Shocks in Macroeconomic ASEAN +3 Countries: Measurement of Risk Management and Decision-making a Linear Dynamic Panel Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 75-83.
    3. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ahmed, Shahzad & Pasha, Farooq, 2014. "The Role of Money in Explaining Business Cycles for a Developing Economy: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 55262, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2014.
    5. Shahzad Ahmad & Adnan Haider, 2019. "An evaluation of the forecast performance of DSGE and VAR Models: The case of a developing country," Business Review, School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi, vol. 14(1), pages 28-52, January-J.
    6. Muhammad Raashid & Abdul Saboor & Aneela Afzal, 2020. "Decision between Public Investment and Public Consumption: A Policy Analysis," Global Economics Review, Humanity Only, vol. 5(1), pages 131-152, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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