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DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco

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  • Lahcen, Mohammed Ait

Abstract

In this thesis we try to understand the impact of some macroeconomic features of developing economies, in particular the existence of a large informal sector, on the reaction of these economies to different shocks. In order to achieve this objective, we derive a simple New Keynesian Small Open Economy DSGE model featuring multiple sectors with monopolistic competition, nominal rigidities in prices, a fixed exchange regime and the introduction of a simple medium-sized informal sector. We estimate the model with Bayesian estimation using quarterly data from Morocco. The model does a good job in capturing the unconditional second moments of the data. It is also able to replicate well some of the historical data series. Estimation results suggest a relatively weaker role of price rigidities in the non-tradables sector. It also suggests a much more aggressive reaction of the central bank to inflationary pressures with a relatively higher weight given to fluctuations in inflation compared with fluctuations in output and the real exchange rate. The study of the Bayesian impulse-response functions confirm the shock absorbing role of the informal sector for productivity shocks and pleads towards excluding imported inflation from the inflation target. However, no evidence is found of a shock absorbing role of the informal sector in the case of interest rate or foreign demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:63404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; developing economies; informality; small open economy; new-keynesian;

    JEL classification:

    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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