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Monetary Policy in the presence of Informal Labour Markets

Author

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  • Castillo, Paul

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Montoro, Carlos

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú and Bank for International Settlements)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effects of informal labour markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labour market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on aggregate wages and inflation. Finding that is consistent with the empirical literature on the e¤ects of informal labour markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that in economies with large informal labour markets the interest rate channel of monetary policy is relatively weaker. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos, 2010. "Monetary Policy in the presence of Informal Labour Markets," Working Papers 2010-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2010-009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Shadow Sorting," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 125-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bosch, Mariano, 2006. "Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2008. "Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1494-1521, November.
    5. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Larsen, Birthe, 2003. "Does Tax Evation Affect Unemployment and Educational Choice?," Working Paper Series 2003:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    6. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    7. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    8. Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
    9. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    10. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    11. Maurizio Bovi, 2007. "Shadow Employment and Labor Productivity Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(4-5), pages 735-761, December.
    12. Fugazza, Marco & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 2004. "Labor market institutions, taxation and the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 395-418, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    2. Waknis, Parag, 2017. "A Segmented Markets Model to Teach Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks in Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 78011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ahmed, Shahzad & Ahmed, Waqas & Khan, Sajawal & Pasha, Farooq & Rehman, Muhammad, 2012. "Pakistan Economy DSGE Model with Informality," MPRA Paper 53135, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Lotti, Emanuela & Yang, Bo, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," Working Papers 11/97, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    5. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    6. Giuseppe Ciccarone & Francesco Giuli, 2012. "Underground labor, search frictions and macroeconomic fluctuations," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0159, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2011. "The Costs and Benefits of Informality," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0211, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    8. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2016. "Inflationary effects of monetary policies in newly industrialized economies with cross-sectoral labor and capital immobility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 151-167.
    9. Colombo, Emilio & Onnis, Luisanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2016. "Shadow economies at times of banking crises: Empirics and theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 180-190.
    10. Purva Khera, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Gender Inequality and Informality in India," IMF Working Papers 16/16, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lahcen, Mohammed Ait, 2014. "DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco," MPRA Paper 63404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "How applicable are the new keynesian DSGE models to a typical low-income economy?," MPRA Paper 30931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Busato, Francesco & Chiarini, Bruno & Rey, Guido M., 2012. "Equilibrium implications of fiscal policy with tax evasion: A long run perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 197-214.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; New Keynesian Model; Informal Economy; Labour Market Frictions.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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