IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/372.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Castillo
  • Carlos Montoro

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the effects of informal labour markets on the dynamics of inflation and on the transmission of aggregate demand and supply shocks. In doing so, we incorporate the informal sector in a modified New Keynesian model with labour market frictions as in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model. Our main results show that the informal economy generates a "buffer" effect that diminishes the pressure of demand shocks on inflation. This finding is consistent with the empirical literature on the effects of informal labour markets in business cycle fluctuations. This result implies that, in economies with large informal labour markets, changes in interest rates are more effective in stimulating real output and there is less impact on inflation. Furthermore, the model produces cyclical flows from informal to formal employment, consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro, 2012. "Inflation Dynamics in the Presence of Informal Labour Markets," BIS Working Papers 372, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:372
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work372.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work372.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2005. "Inflation Stabilization And Welfare: The Case Of A Distorted Steady State," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1185-1236, December.
    2. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, January.
    3. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, 2005. "Shadow Sorting," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 125-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bosch, Mariano, 2006. "Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal labour markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19785, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ravenna, Federico & Walsh, Carl E., 2008. "Vacancies, unemployment, and the Phillips curve," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1494-1521, November.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    7. Kolm, Ann-Sofie & Larsen, Birthe, 2003. "Does Tax Evation Affect Unemployment and Educational Choice?," Working Paper Series 2003:22, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Thomas, Carlos, 2008. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 936-956, July.
    9. Krause, Michael U. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "The (ir)relevance of real wage rigidity in the New Keynesian model with search frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 706-727, April.
    10. Cheron, Arnaud & Langot, Francois, 2000. "The Phillips and Beveridge curves revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 371-376, December.
    11. Nicoletta Batini & Young-Bae Kim & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2009. "Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0609, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    12. Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
    13. Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Equilibrium Unemployment, Job Flows, and Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
    14. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    15. Maurizio Bovi, 2007. "Shadow Employment and Labor Productivity Dynamics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 21(4-5), pages 735-761, December.
    16. Fugazza, Marco & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 2004. "Labor market institutions, taxation and the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 395-418, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McKenzie, Rex A, 2015. "Monetary transmission in Africa: a review of official sources," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-7, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    2. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:395-434 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Céspedes, Nikita, 2015. "Creación y Destrucción de Empleos e Informalidad," Working Papers 2015-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    4. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2013. "Informality and macroeconomic fluctuations: A small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model with dual labour markets," Working Papers 2013002, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; New Keynesian Model; Informal Economy; Labour Market Frictions;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:372. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Beslmeisl). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.