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A Theory of Countercyclical Government-Consumption Multiplier

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  • Michaillat, Pascal

Abstract

This paper proposes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which the government-consumption multiplier doubles when unemployment rises from 5% to 8%. Theoretically, such countercyclicality arises because of a nonlinearity, namely, that labor supply is convex in a labor market tightness-employment diagram. In the model, as government consumption increases, public employment rises, stimulating labor demand. Equilibrium tightness increases, which reduces private employment and partially offsets the increase in public employment. Since labor supply is convex, the increase in tightness is small in recessions but large in expansions. Hence, government consumption reduces unemployment much more in recessions than in expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A Theory of Countercyclical Government-Consumption Multiplier," CEPR Discussion Papers 9052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9052
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    Cited by:

    1. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    2. Rendahl, P., 2012. "Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1211, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2013. "Why is the Government Spending Multiplier Larger at the Zero Lower Bound ? Not (Only) Because of the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2014-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    4. Annalisa Cristini & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2015. "Search Theories and Aggregate Demand," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 55-65, August.
    5. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2013. "The Productive Government Spending Multiplier, In and Out of The Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 2013-02, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    6. Ricardo Silva & Vitor Manuel Carvalho & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2013. "How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area," FEP Working Papers 500, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2013. "Cross-Border Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Estimates Based on Narrative Records," CESifo Working Paper Series 4311, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle; multiplier; unemployment;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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