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The Dynamics of Relief Spending and the Private Urban Labor Market During the New Deal

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  • Neumann, Todd C.
  • Fishback, Price V.
  • Kantor, Shawn

Abstract

We examine the dynamic relationships between relief spending and local private labor markets using a panel data set of relief, private employment, and private earnings. Positive shocks to relief during the First New Deal were followed by increased private employment and earnings, consistent with demand stimulus in that period. On the other hand, increases in work relief spending during the Second New Deal were followed by decreased employment and increased earnings, consistent with crowding out. The timing of spending is consistent with claims that the Roosevelt administration used relief spending to sway elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Neumann, Todd C. & Fishback, Price V. & Kantor, Shawn, 2010. "The Dynamics of Relief Spending and the Private Urban Labor Market During the New Deal," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 195-220, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:70:y:2010:i:01:p:195-220_00
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    Cited by:

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    3. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Laura Feiveson & Zachary Liscow & William Gui Woolston, 2012. "Does State Fiscal Relief during Recessions Increase Employment? Evidence from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 118-145, August.
    5. Leah Platt Boustan & Price V. Fishback & Shawn Kantor, 2010. "The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets:American Cities during the Great Depression," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(4), pages 719-746, October.
    6. Michaillat, Pascal, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers Over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 8610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Price V. Fishback & John Joseph Wallis, 2012. "What Was New About the New Deal?," NBER Working Papers 18271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A theory of countercyclical government-consumption multiplier," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54277, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Björn Brey & Matthias S. Hertweck, 2023. "The dynamic effects of monsoon rainfall shocks on agricultural yield, wages, and food prices in India," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(3), pages 616-654, July.
    10. Liu, Xing & Fishback, Price, 2019. "Effects of New Deal Spending and the downturns of the 1930s on private labor markets in 1939/1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 25-54.
    11. Price Fishback, 2010. "US monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 385-413, Autumn.
    12. Price Fishback, 2017. "How Successful Was the New Deal? The Microeconomic Impact of New Deal Spending and Lending Policies in the 1930s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1435-1485, December.
    13. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Engelman, Michal, 2022. "Social insurance programs and later-life mortality: Evidence from new deal relief spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    14. Price V. Fishback, 2012. "Relief During the Great Depression in Australia and America," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 52(3), pages 221-249, November.
    15. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
    16. Polat, Tandogan, 2016. "Essays on banking sector’s dynamics, expectations, preferences and impact," Other publications TiSEM d064f029-f91e-47bc-b6d3-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Klein, Alexander & Otsuy, Keisuke, 2013. "Efficiency, Distortions and Factor Utilization during the Interwar Period," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 147, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    18. Price V. Fishback & Valentina Kachanovskaya, 2010. "In Search of the Multiplier for Federal Spending in the States During the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 16561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    20. Poelmans, Eline & Taylor, Jason E. & Raisanen, Samuel & Holt, Andrew C., 2022. "Estimates of employment gains attributable to beer legalization in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    21. Price Fishback & Samuel Allen & Jonathan Fox & Brendan Livingston, 2010. "A Patchwork Safety Net: A Survey Of Cliometric Studies Of Income Maintenance Programs In The United States In The First Half Of The Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 895-940, December.
    22. Michael R.M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregression in Stata: a Package of Programs," Working Papers 201602, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    23. Afolabi Tunde Ahmed, 2019. "The impact of structural change in exports on economic growth in West Africa: cointegration and causality analysis," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 3(6), pages 25-37.

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