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A theory of countercyclical government multiplier

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  • Michaillat, Pascal

Abstract

I develop a New Keynesian model in which a type of government multiplier doubles when unemployment rises from 5 percent to 8 percent. This multiplier indicates the additional number of workers employed when one worker is hired in the public sector. Graphically, in equilibrium, an upward-sloping quasi-labor supply intersects a downward-sloping labor demand in a (employment, labor market tightness) plane. Increasing public employment stimulates labor demand, which increases tightness and therefore crowds out private employment. Critically, the quasi-labor supply is convex. Hence, when labor demand is depressed and unemployment is high, the increase in tightness and resulting crowding-out are small.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A theory of countercyclical government multiplier," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54277, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:54277
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    Cited by:

    1. Mario Alloza, 2014. "Is Fiscal Policy More Effective in Uncertain Times or During Recessions?," Discussion Papers 1631, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Oct 2016.
    2. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Is There an Alternative Strategy for Reducing Public Debt by 2032?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(1), pages 39-57, Februar.
    3. Gomes, Pedro Maia, 2017. "Heterogeneity and the Public Sector Wage Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 11091, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    5. Javier J. Pérez & Marie Aouriri & Maria M. Campos & Dmitrij Celov & Domenico Depalo & Evangelia Papapetrou & Jurga Pesliakaite & Roberto Ramos Magdaleno & Marta Rodríguez-Vives, 2016. "The fiscal and macroeconomic effects of government wages and employment reform," Occasional Papers 1607, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:54-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2016. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 11633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Thierry BETTI & Thomas COUDERT, 2015. "How can the labor market accounts for the effectiveness of fiscal policy over the business cycle?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2015-06, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    9. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    10. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    11. Javier J. Perez & Ana Lamo & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Does Slack Influence Public and Private Labor Market," EcoMod2015 8792, EcoMod.
    12. Ana Lamo & Enrique Moral-Benito & Javier J. Pérez, 2016. "Does slack influence public and private labour market interactions?," Working Papers 1605, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    13. M. Bussière & L. Ferrara & M. Juillard & D. Siena, 2017. "Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results," Working papers 625, Banque de France.
    14. Andrea Tafuro, 2015. " The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment: an Analysis of the Aggregate Evidence," Working Papers 2015: 03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    15. Gehrke, Britta & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Identifying asymmetric effects of labor market reforms," IAB Discussion Paper 201723, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Marco Bernardini & Gert Peersman, 2015. "Private Debt Overhang And The Government Spending Multiplier: Evidence For The United States," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/901, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2016. "Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement," IMF Working Papers 16/60, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    19. Thomas COUDERT & Thierry BETTI, 2016. "How harmful are cuts in public employment and wage in times of high unemployment?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2016-05, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    20. Matteo Salto, 2016. "Fiscal Policy after the Crisis – Workshop Proceedings," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 035, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiplier; unemployment; business cycle; job rationing; matching frictions;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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