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The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle

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  • Eric Sims
  • Jonathan Wolff

Abstract

This paper studies the state-dependence of the output and welfare effects of shocks to government purchases in a canonical medium scale DSGE model. When monetary policy is characterized by a Taylor rule, the output multiplier (the change in output for a one unit change in government spending) is countercyclical but close to constant across states of the business cycle, whereas the welfare multiplier (the consumption equivalent change in a measure of aggregate welfare for the same change in government spending) is quite volatile and procyclical. These results are robust to different means of fiscal finance. When the nominal interest rate is unresponsive to economic conditions, such as would be the case at the zero lower bound, both the output and welfare multipliers are larger and move significantly more across states than under a Taylor rule. The welfare multiplier is still procyclical under passive monetary policy, albeit less so than under a Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Sims & Jonathan Wolff, 2013. "The Output and Welfare Effects of Government Spending Shocks over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 19749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hamed Ghiaie, 2017. "Credit Crunch On Financial Intermediary," THEMA Working Papers 2017-09, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    2. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Guillard & Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Optimal Composition of Public Spending in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 16.09, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    4. Zuzana Mucka & Michal Horvath, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Matters A New DSGE Model for Slovakia," Discussion Papers Discussion Paper No. 1/20, Council for Budget Responsibility.
    5. Giovanni Ganelli & Juha Tervala, 2016. "The Welfare Multiplier of Public Infrastructure Investment," IMF Working Papers 16/40, International Monetary Fund.
    6. repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/696277 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    8. repec:red:issued:18-178 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Nadav Ben Zeev & Ohad Raveh, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Fisal Federalism, and Capital Intensity," OxCarre Working Papers 181, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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