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A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government-Spending Multipliers

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Fève
  • Julien Matheron
  • Jean-Guillaume Sahuc

    () (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.
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Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government-Spending Multipliers," Post-Print hal-01612704, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01612704
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01612704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    4. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    6. Devereux, Michael B & Head, Allen C & Lapham, Beverly J, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 233-254, May.
    7. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2009. "Nonseparable Preferences, Fiscal Policy Puzzles, and Inferior Goods," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 443-450, March.
    8. Linnemann, Ludger, 2006. "The Effect of Government Spending on Private Consumption: A Puzzle?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1715-1735, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecolet:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:121-125 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Patrick Fève & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2017. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 704-718, April.
    3. Anna Kormilitsina, 2016. "Is Government Spending Predetermined? A Test of Identification for Fiscal Policy Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 1607, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    4. Anna Kormilitsina & Sarah Zubairy, 2015. "Propagation Mechanisms for Government Spending Shocks: A Bayesian Comparison," EcoMod2015 8646, EcoMod.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:140-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Patrick Fève & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2015. "On the size of the government spending multiplier in the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 531-552.
    7. Patrick Fève & Olivier Pierrard, 2017. "Financial Regulation and Shadow Banking: A Small-Scale DSGE Perspective," BCL working papers 111, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    8. Cristiano Cantore & Paul Levine & Giovanni Melina, 2014. "Deep versus superficial habit: It’s all in the persistence," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0714, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    9. repec:wly:iecrev:v:59:y:2018:i:3:p:1403-1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Taisuke Nakata, 2017. "Optimal Government Spending at the Zero Lower Bound: A Non-Ricardian Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 150-169, January.
    11. MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & HASUMI Ryo, 2016. "Impacts of Government Spending on Unemployment: Evidence from a Medium-scale DSGE Model(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 329, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    12. Dupaigne, Martial & Fève, Patrick, 2016. "Persistent government spending and fiscal multipliers: The investment-channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 425-453.
    13. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2017. "House Prices and Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1247-1271, September.
    14. Go Kotera & Saisuke Sakai, 2017. "Complementarity between Merit Goods and Private Consumption: Evidence from estimated DSGE model for Japan," KIER Working Papers 978, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    15. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    16. Guilherme Bandeira & Evi Pappa & Rana Sajedi & Eugenia Vella, 2018. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Low-Inflation Environment: Pay Cuts versus Lost Jobs," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 7-52, June.
    17. Bermperoglou, Dimitrios & Pappa, Evi & Vella, Eugenia, 2017. "The government wage bill and private activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 21-47.
    18. Noel Rapa, 2017. "Estimates of Fiscal Multipliers using MEDSEA," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    19. Reis, Ricardo, 2017. "Comment on: “jump‐starting the euro area recovery: would a rise in core fiscal spending help the periphery”," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. repec:mof:journl:ppr14_04_05 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
    22. Emmanouil Kitsios & Manasa Patnam, 2016. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity," IMF Working Papers 16/13, International Monetary Fund.
    23. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:50:y:2018:i:7:p:1571-1616 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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