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Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations

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  • Laséen, Stefan
  • Svensson, Lars E O

Abstract

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy-rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank's main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy-rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy-rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the 'state' of the economy) the vector of nonzero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy-rate path.

Suggested Citation

  • Laséen, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2011. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8176
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecolet:v:159:y:2017:i:c:p:190-194 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    3. Matsumoto, Akito & Cova, Pietro & Pisani, Massimiliano & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2011. "News shocks and asset price volatility in general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2132-2149.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2013. "Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 012, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    5. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks' Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11405, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S. & Paustian, Matthias, 2015. "Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 230-243.
    7. Cole, Stephen, 2016. "The limits of central bank forward guidance under learning," MPRA Paper 70862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michael Kiley, 2016. "Policy Paradoxes in the New-Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 1-15, July.
    9. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laséen & Jesper Lindé & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2011. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium‐Sized DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(7), pages 1287-1331, October.
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2015. "The Possible Unemployment Cost of Average Inflation below a Credible Target," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 258-296, January.
    11. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2185 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Svensson, Lars E O, 2013. "Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    14. Klaus Neusser, 2018. "The New Keynesian Model with Stochastically Varying Policies," Diskussionsschriften dp1801, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    15. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2017. "What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting," NBER Working Papers 23993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Pedro Lutz Ramos & Marcelo Savino Portugal, 2016. "Choques Antecipados De Política Monetária, Forward Guidance E Políticas De Estabilização Macroeconômicas," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 043, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    17. Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Gust, Christopher J., 2013. "Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 941-967.
    18. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2016. "Deepening Contractions and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    instrument rules; Optimal monetary policy; optimal policy projections; policy rules;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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