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Anticipated Alternative Policy-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations

  • Laséen, Stefan

    ()

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Svensson, Lars E.O.

    ()

    (Sveriges Riksbank)

This paper specifies a new convenient algorithm to construct policy projections conditional on alternative anticipated policy-rate paths in linearized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, such as Ramses, the Riksbank's main DSGE model. Such projections with anticipated policy-rate paths correspond to situations where the central bank transparently announces that it, conditional on current information, plans to implement a particular policy-rate path and where this announced plan for the policy rate is believed and then anticipated by the private sector. The main idea of the algorithm is to include among the predetermined variables (the "state" of the economy) the vector of nonzero means of future shocks to a given policy rule that is required to satisfy the given anticipated policy-rate path.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 248.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0248
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  1. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  2. Marc P. Giannoni & Michael Woodford, 2010. "Optimal Target Criteria for Stabilization Policy," Discussion Papers 0910-10, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  3. Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 1990. "Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 438-473.
  4. Malin Adolfson & Stefan Laseen & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani, 2005. "An estimated New Keynesian small open economy model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
  7. Adolfson, Malin & Laseén, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Svensson, Lars E.O., 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium-Sized DSGE Model," Working Paper Series 225, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Lars O. Svensson & Robert J. Tetlow, 2005. "Optimal Policy Projections," NBER Working Papers 11392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 1999. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  11. Gary S. Anderson, 2010. "A reliable and computationally efficient algorithm for imposing the saddle point property in dynamic models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Boucekkine, Raouf, 1995. "An alternative methodology for solving nonlinear forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-734, May.
  13. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Donald L. Kohn & David E. Lindsey & Richard D. Porter & Ralph Tryon, 1990. "Financial sectors in open economies: empirical analysis and policy issues: results of a preconference workshop (January 1988) and the conference (May 1988) sponsored by the Board of Governors of the F," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Anderson, Gary & Moore, George, 1985. "A linear algebraic procedure for solving linear perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 247-252.
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