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Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model

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  • Svensson, Lars E.O.
  • Linde, Jesper
  • Adolfson, Malin
  • LASEEN, PER

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank's empirical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. The main results are, first, that the transmission of shocks depends substantially on the conduct of monetary policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible.

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  • Svensson, Lars E.O. & Linde, Jesper & Adolfson, Malin & LASEEN, PER, 2008. "Monetary Policy Trade-Offs in an Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7070
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    1. Le Bihan, Hervé & Marx, Magali & Matheron, Julien, 2023. "Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Kristin Forbes & Jongrim Ha & M. Ayhan Kose, 2025. "Tradeoffs over Rate Cycles: Activity, Inflation, and the Price Level," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2025, volume 40, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Ivashchenko, Sergey, 2021. "Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Sumei Luo & Guangyou Zhou & Jinpeng Zhou, 2021. "The Impact of Electronic Money on Monetary Policy: Based on DSGE Model Simulations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(20), pages 1-26, October.
    5. Benchimol, Jonathan, 2024. "Central bank objectives, monetary policy rules, and limited information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Guy Segal, 2017. "To Respond or Not to Respond: Measures of the Output Gap in Theory and in Practice," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 73-120, June.
    7. Charles Engel, 2011. "Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2796-2822, October.
    8. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2019. "Central bank losses and monetary policy rules: A DSGE investigation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 289-303.
    9. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Alper, Koray & Pereira da Silva, Luiz, 2018. "External shocks, financial volatility and reserve requirements in an open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    10. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Alper, Koray & Pereira da Silva, Luiz A., 2014. "Sudden floods, macroprudential regulation and stability in an open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 68-100.
    11. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2019. "A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — Making bricks with little straw," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 503-518.
    12. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2022. "Risk-premium shocks and the prudent exchange rate policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 97-122.
    13. Gelfer, Sacha, 2024. "Examining business cycles and optimal monetary policy in a regional DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    15. Shulgin, A., 2015. "Optimization of Simple Monetary Policy Rules on the Base of Estimated DSGE-model," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 64-98.
    16. Ahmad, Yamin S. & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Exploring international differences in inflation dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 115-135.
    17. Andreyev, M. & Polbin, A., 2019. "Studying the financial accelerator effect in a two-sector DSGE model for an exportoriented economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 12-49.
    18. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2016. "Nominal income versus Taylor-type rules in practice," Working Papers hal-01357870, HAL.
    19. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    20. Dutu, Richard, 2016. "Why has economic growth slowed down in Indonesia? An investigation into the Indonesian business cycle using an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 46-55.
    21. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "Oil and Commodities Drive the World Business Cycle: A Long-Commodity-Cycle Model of the World Economy Over a Century and a Half," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2018/16, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    22. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten Ralf, 2023. "Super-Inertial Interest Rate Rules are not Solutions of Ramsey Optimal Policy," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 133(1), pages 119-146.
    23. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2019. "Limited Information and the Relation Between the Variance of Inflation and the Variance of Output in a New Keynesian," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(PNEA), pages 541-557, Agosto 20.
    24. Jonathan Benchimol & André Fourçans, 2017. "Monetary Rule, Central Bank Loss and Household’s Welfare: an Empirical Investigation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 329, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impulse responses; Instrument rules; Open-economy dsge models; Optimal monetary policy; Output gap; Potential output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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