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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

  • Jordi Galí

    (CREI, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona GSE)

  • Frank Smets

    (European Central Bank, CEPR and University of Groningen)

  • Rafael Wouters

    (National Bank of Belgium)

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and labor supply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) in their criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a "correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated model can be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

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File URL: http://www.nbp.pl/publikacje/materialy_i_studia/106_en.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 106.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 2012
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:106
Note: Prepared for the NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011 Conference, held in Cambridge, MA on April 8-9,2011.
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  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick Kehoe & Ellen McGrattan, 2004. "Business Cycle Accounting," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000560, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin & Lawrence Christiano, 2016. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 194, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Gertler, Mark & Trigari, Antonella, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1013-1025, November.
  6. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Staff Report 409, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2002. "Markups, gaps, and the welfare costs of business fluctuations," Working Papers 0204, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  11. repec:bcl:bclwop:cahier_etude_33 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 17-34.
  13. Luca Sala & Ulf Soderstrom & Antonella Trigari, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," Working Papers 365, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  14. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1035, European Central Bank.
  16. Carlos Thomas, 2006. "Search and matching frictions and optimal monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19782, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  17. Trigari, Antonella, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0304, European Central Bank.
  18. repec:adr:anecst:y:2009:i:95-96:p:12 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  21. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010. "DSGE models for monetary policy analysis," FRB Atlanta CQER Working Paper 2010-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  23. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," Kiel Working Papers 1513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  24. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  25. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  26. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
  27. Zanetti, Francesco, 2007. "A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2413-2437, July.
  28. repec:adr:anecst:y:2009:i:95-96 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
  30. James R. Spletzer & Katharine G. Abraham & Jay C. Stewart, 1999. "Why Do Different Wage Series Tell Different Stories?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 34-39, May.
  31. Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
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