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An Estimated New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment as Excess Supply of Labor

  • Miguel Casares

    ()

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Pública de Navarra)

  • Antonio Moreno

    ()

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Navarra)

  • Jesús Vázquez

    ()

    (Departamento FAE II, Universidad del País Vasco)

Wage stickiness is incorporated to a New-Keynesian model with variable capital in a way that generates endogenous unemployment fluctuations as the log difference between aggregate labor supply and aggregate labor demand. After estimation with U.S. data, the implied second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate provide a reasonable match with those observed in the data. Our results also show that wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fluctuations. Compared to an estimated canonical DSGE model without unemployment: wage stickiness is higher, labor supply elasticity is lower, the slope of the New-Keynesian Phillips curve is flatter, and the importance of technology innovations on output growth variability increases.

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File URL: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom/files/workingpapersmodule/@random50169a3d22927/1343664292_WP_UNAV_01_12.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 01/12.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: 30 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp0112
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

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  1. Miguel Casares, 2007. "Firm-Specific or Household-Specific Sticky Wages in the New Keynesian Model?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 181-240, December.
  2. Kimball, Miles S, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1241-77, November.
  3. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2011. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Working Papers 541, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Mark Gertler & Luca Sala & Antonella Trigari, 2008. "An Estimated Monetary DSGE Model with Unemployment and Staggered Nominal Wage Bargaining," Working Papers 341, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2007. "Shocks and frictions in US business cycles: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Working Paper Series 0722, European Central Bank.
  8. Carl E. Walsh, 2005. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 829-849, October.
  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2003. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," NBER Working Papers 9866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  11. Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," 2010 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Mulligan Casey B, 2001. "Aggregate Implications of Indivisible Labor," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-35, April.
  13. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Gary Hansen, 2010. "Indivisible Labor and the Business Cycle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 233, David K. Levine.
  15. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cho, J-O. & Cooley, T.F., 1988. "Employment And Hours Over The Business Cycle," Papers 88-03, Rochester, Business - General.
  17. Pascal Michaillat, 2010. "Do Matching Frictions Explain Unemployment? Not in Bad Times," CEP Discussion Papers dp1024, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  18. Trigari, Antonella, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0304, European Central Bank.
  19. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
  20. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  22. Bénassy, Jean-Pascal, 1993. "Money and wage contracts in an optimizing model of the business cycle," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9325, CEPREMAP.
  23. Miguel Casares & Antonio Moreno & Jesús Vázquez, 2009. "Wage Stickiness and Unemployment Fluctuations: An Alternative Approach," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 0902, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  24. Jordi Galí, 2010. "The Return of the Wage Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 15758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Champagne, Julien & Kurmann, André, 2013. "The great increase in relative wage volatility in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 166-183.
  26. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
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