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Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model

  • Galí, Jordi
  • Smets, Frank
  • Wouters, Rafael

We reformulate the Smets-Wouters (2007) framework by embedding the theory of unemployment proposed in Galí (2011a,b). We estimate the resulting model using postwar U.S. data, while treating the unemployment rate as an additional observable variable. Our approach overcomes the lack of identification of wage markup and labor supply shocks highlighted by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2008) in their criticism of New Keynesian models, and allows us to estimate a "correct" measure of the output gap. In addition, the estimated model can be used to analyze the sources of unemployment fluctuations.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8401.

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Date of creation: May 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8401
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  1. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  2. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2007. "Business Cycle Accounting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(3), pages 781-836, 05.
  3. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2011. "Is there a trade-off between inflation and output stabilization?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8407, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Frank Smets & Kai Christoffel & Günter Coenen & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "DSGE models and their use at the ECB," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 51-65, March.
  5. Carlos Thomas, 2006. "Search and Matching Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," CEP Discussion Papers dp0743, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  6. Ellen R. McGrattan & Patrick J. Kehoe & V. V. Chari, 2008. "New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis," Working Papers 664, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. De Walque, Gregory & Pierrard, Olivier & Sneessens, Henri R. & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "Sequential Bargaining in a New-Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment and Staggered Wage Negotiation," IZA Discussion Papers 4059, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
  9. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2008. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New-Keynesian Model with Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13897, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Trigari, Antonella, 2004. "Equilibrium unemployment, job flows and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 0304, European Central Bank.
  12. Hamid Mehran & Joseph Tracy, 2001. "The effect of employee stock options on the evolution of compensation in the 1990s," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 17-34.
  13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabrandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "Involuntary Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Working Paper Series 238, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2012.
  14. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, Jose David, 2002. "Markups, Gaps and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
  17. Gertler, Mark & Trigari, Antonella, 2006. "Unemployment fluctuation with staggered Nash wage bargaining," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  18. Casares, Miguel, 2010. "Unemployment as excess supply of labor: Implications for wage and price inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 233-243, March.
  19. Luca Sala & Ulf Soderstrom & Antonella Trigari, 2010. "The Output Gap, the Labor Wedge, and the Dynamic Behavior of Hours," Working Papers 365, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  20. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2007. "Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division’s estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy: 2006 version," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-53, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  22. repec:bcl:bclwop:cahier_etude_33 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
  24. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1013-1025, November.
  25. James R. Spletzer & Katharine G. Abraham & Jay C. Stewart, 1999. "Why Do Different Wage Series Tell Different Stories?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 34-39, May.
  26. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  27. Zanetti, Francesco, 2007. "A non-Walrasian labor market in a monetary model of the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2413-2437, July.
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