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Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle

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  • Sergio A. Lago Alves

Abstract

I show that the combination of small positive trend inflation with staggered prices may account for the large relative volatilities found in US labor market data. The model does not have any wage rigidity and is hit only by an aggregate technology shock. The calibration procedure uses standard parameter values. Controlling for the sample average of the CPI inflation rate and the degree of price stickiness, the model solves the Shimer (2005) puzzle and explains the volatilities observed during two important sample periods: full sample (1951-2005) and Great Moderation (1985-2005).

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers Series 277, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:277
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    Cited by:

    1. Alves, Sergio Afonso Lago, 2014. "Lack of divine coincidence in New Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 33-46.
    2. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2016. "Labor Markets in Heterogenous Sectors," Working Papers Series 421, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    3. Federico di Pace & Kaushik Mitra & Shoujian Zhang, 2014. "Adaptive Learning and Labour Market Dynamics," CDMA Working Paper Series 201408, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    4. Bruno Martins, 2012. "Local Market Structure and Bank Competition: evidence from the Brazilian auto loan market," Working Papers Series 299, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo, 2012. "A Note on Particle Filters Applied to DSGE Models," Working Papers Series 281, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
    7. Arnildo Da Silva Correa & Sergio Afonso Lago Alves, 2016. "A Tale Of Three Gaps: Unemployment, Capacity Utilization And Output," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 031, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    8. Di Pace, Federico & Villa, Stefania, 2016. "Factor complementarity and labour market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 70-112.
    9. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "Information (in) Chains: information transmission through production chains," Working Papers Series 286, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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