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Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a Trend Inflation World: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Guido Ascari

    () (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia)

  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    (University of Padua and Bank of Finland)

  • Lorenza Rossi

    () (Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods, University of Pavia)

Abstract

This paper estimates and compares new-Keynesian DSGE monetary models of the business cycle derived under two different pricing schemes - Calvo, Rotemberg - and a positive trend inflation rate. Our empirical findings (i) support trend inflation-equipped models as better fitting during the U.S. great moderation period, (ii) provide evidence in favor of the statistical superiority of the Calvo setting, and (iii) suggest the absence of price indexation under the Calvo mechanism only. Possibly, the superiority of the Calvo model (against Rotemberg) is due to the restrictions implied by such pricing scheme for the aggregate demand equation. The determinacy regions associated to the two estimated models indicate relevant differences in the implementable simple policies. Our findings call for the development of monetary policy models consistently embedding a positive trend inflation rate and possibly based on a Calvo pricing scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Ascari & Efrem Castelnuovo & Lorenza Rossi, 2010. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a Trend Inflation World: An Empirical Investigation," Quaderni di Dipartimento 108, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:wpaper:108
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    Cited by:

    1. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Groshenny, Nicolas & Haque, Qazi & Weder, Mark, 2017. "Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 83-95.
    2. Stähler, Nikolai & Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens, 2014. "Getting into GEAR: German and the Rest of Euro Area Fiscal Policy During the Crisis," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100460, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2017. "Optimal inflation to reduce inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 79-94, March.
    4. Kai Liu, 2014. "Public Finances, Business Cycles and Structural Fiscal Balances," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    6. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2014. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999 to 2008: Can they be blamed for intra-Euro Area imbalances?," Working Papers 05/2014, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    7. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    8. Cantelmo, Alessandro & Melina, Giovanni, 2018. "Monetary policy and the relative price of durable goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-48.
    9. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
    10. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
    11. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers Series 277, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Nakata, Taisuke, 2014. "Welfare costs of shifting trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-78.
    13. Arias, Jonas E. & Ascari, Guido & Branzoli, Nicola & Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2014. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation - Comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 1127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Rossi, Lorenza, 2013. "Optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with endogenous growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 274-285.
    15. Malikane, Christopher, 2012. "The microfoundations of the Keynesian wage-price spiral," MPRA Paper 42921, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 29 Nov 2012.
    16. Richter, Alexander W. & Throckmorton, Nathaniel A., 2016. "Is Rotemberg pricing justified by macro data?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 44-48.
    17. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    18. Van Zandweghe, Willem & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "A pitfall of expectational stability analysis," Research Working Paper RWP 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    19. Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "Uncertainty-dependent Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Keynesian Interpretation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6821, CESifo Group Munich.
    20. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Patrizio Tirelli & Nicola Acocella, 2015. "The Comeback of Inflation as an Optimal Public Finance Tool," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(1), pages 43-70, January.
    21. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2017. "Optimal inflation to reduce inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 79-94, March.
    22. Gadatsch, Niklas & Hauzenberger, Klemens & Stähler, Nikolai, 2016. "Fiscal policy during the crisis: A look on Germany and the Euro area with GEAR," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 997-1016.
    23. Lorenzo Menna & Patrizio Tirelli, 2014. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policies," Working Papers 284, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2014.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calvo; Rotemberg; trend inflation; Bayesian estimations.;

    JEL classification:

    • L40 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - General
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment
    • L52 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Industrial Policy; Sectoral Planning Methods

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